Mudflats and Hays Research
[Conservatives 4 Palin neither endorses nor repudiates the view expressed in this first and likely final guest post from commentator TommyReport]
Mudflats has indicated on her blog that the illustrious Hays Research Group is conducting a poll regarding Sarah Palin's favorables/unfavorables in the state of Alaska post-resignation. Mudflats believes that this poll will show bad news for Governor Palin based on "number-crunching" from some of her blog's followers.
I am personally awaiting the poll's data with baited breath not because I am particularly interested in how Alaskans view Governor Palin but rather because I need to get a good laugh from Ann Hays, the pollster in charge of Hays Research Group.
If one has any questions regarding Ms. Hays' record when it comes to polling the state of Alaska, one has to look no further than the results of her final poll of the general election matchup between McCain and Obama in Alaska, taken a couple days before election day.
McCain/Palin
46.6%
Undecided - Lean McCain/Palin
1.7%
Obama/Biden
43.9%
Undecided - Lean Obama/Biden
0.7%
Other Candidate
2.0%
Don't Know / Refused
5.1%
And the actual results for the McCain/Obama general election matchup in Alaska were.....drumroll......McCain 59.4%, Obama 37.9%. So Ms. Hays' results were only off by 20 points.
Now Mudflats has assured America that she is the final authority on anything in Alaskan politics...so a reasonable analyst of politics would have expected her to laugh at these poll results from Ann Hays about the state she claims to know so much about. Well, here's what Mudflats actually had to say:
"Go ahead and rub your eyes, and look at that graph again. You saw it right. Less than 3 points separating the candidates in Alaska, as of yesterday. These are the latest numbers released by Alaska’s Hays Research Group. With Obama-Biden nipping at the heels of McCain-Palin, can we be considered a battleground state again?"
Eh.....Mudflats? Anyone who isn't listening to anti-American, anti-military rhetoric all day could have told you that Obama-Biden were not "nipping at the heels of McCain-Palin" and that your state was not a "battleground state" at the presidential level.
Mudflats, be proud of your fellow Alaskans. You guys got it right on November 4th. Any thinking person could have ascertained that the results from Hays Research Group were a joke when juxtaposing the percentage of your state that has served in the military with the polling showing how hated Barack Obama is among military folks.
But as I said at the beginning, I'm also eagerly awaiting the poll results from Ms. Hays. I need something else to laugh at other than the ratings for the only guy willing to put Shannyn Moore on national television.
Update: Sean Parnell is now one of the most popular governors in America if you want to believe Hays Research Group despite Hays sterling prediction of a 3-point race between McCain and Obama in its final Alaska poll that gave Mudflats a thrill up her leg.
As Adam Brickley stated, Parnell will serve as a great example of "how 'Palinism' works...Gov. Parnell's success will be a reflection on his former boss."
Update 2: To Mudflats and Shannyn, if you want to accept that this Hays Research poll at face value, I'm sure Governor Palin would as well given that it means Parnell is likely on his way to a landslide victory in 2010, meaning he will have the opportunity to continue all of her major initiatives, something that he has already pledged to do.
So get ready for more Palinesque policies these next six years, Mudflats and Shannyn !
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26 comments:
Nice article TR. What's the over/under on Sarah Palin themed polls between now & 2012? 10,000?
I received the email from Hays Group this evening:
In this survey 400 respondents across the State of Alaska were asked about their opinions of Sarah Palin and Sean Parnell.
The following question was paid for and released by Hays Research Group, and not done on behalf of any individual, candidate, or group.
Question 1
Would you say you feel positive or negative about Sarah Palin? And is that very (positive or negative) or somewhat (positive or negative)?
Very positive 120/400 30.0%
Somewhat positive 67/400 16.8%
Total positive (very+somewhat) 187/400 46.8%
Somewhat negative 65/400 16.2%
Very negative 125/400 31.2%
Total negative (very+somewhat) 190/400 47.5%
Don't Know the person 5/400 1.2%
Refused 0/400 0%
=======
On Parnell:
Question 2
Would you say you feel positive or negative about Sean Parnell? And is that very (positive or negative) or somewhat (positive or negative)?
Very positive 104/400 26.0%
Somewhat positive 162/400 40.5%
Total positive (very+somewhat) 268/400 66.5%
Somewhat negative 22/400 5.5%
Very negative 9/400 2.2%
Total negative (very+somewhat) 31/400 7.8%
Don't Know the person 31/400 7.8%
Refused 0/400 0%
===============
This survey was conducted among households with at least one member who has voted in at least 2 of the last 4 state or local elections within the State of Alaska. The survey was fielded on July 29th-30th, 2009. 400 respondents were contacted by telephone for the survey. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 4.9% with a 95% confidence interval.
lololol why the warning at the begining of the post? haha
But Wow...20 points off is really really bad. Good luck with that one mudflats.
I do not believe any pole that does not give the % of reps., dims, and independants.
good post though!
Mudflats? Don't you mean JEANNE DEVON?
Betty,
Can you post a link to this post over at Mudflats?
So according to the Palin hater, Sarah's unfavorable rating is up by 1 percent 47 to 46 percent. So considering how AWFUL and I mean AWFUL this hater's poll was during the election, she actually said that Obama could win Alaska LOL, we figure that Sarah's favorability is actually 20 points higher then what is stated here. That's good to know. All I have to do is look at all of the people that showed up for all three of her picnics to know how popular she is
Palin's hotshot lawyer (he also represents Obama) kind of confirms that she is somewhat open to the idea of radio. I personally think television is a better outlet for her though I would not like her to go Fox News.
Palin radio decision "in the future."
http://www.insideradio.com/Article.asp?id=1431221&spid=32060
Radio might be in former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s plans, but her attorney says a decision hasn’t been made. Robert Barnett disputes reports members of Palin's team have been testing the waters to gauge syndicators’ interest.
Barnett says, “Many individuals and entities have expressed strong interest in Governor Palin. To date, she has not spoken with any of them, negotiated with any of them or made deals with any of them.”
Industry sources told Inside Radio this week people representing the 2008 Republican Vice Presidential candidate were making informal, preliminary overtures to radio networks. But Barnett insists no such talks have begun. "All of that is in the future," he says.
Since resigning from office last Sunday in Fairbanks, Palin has said little about what her next step will be. A book deal has been announced, and that’s helped fuel speculation a media career could be in her future.
dang tommy, those alaska numbers are actually pretty good for Sarah in my opinion. I mean she just resigned less than a week ago, yet she still almost has over 50% approval rating. I bet those clowns at mudflats are pretty dissapointed. I bet they were thinking she would be in the 30's.
Considering the margin of error, these numbers mean next to nothing. Junk poll. And what does it really matter now? It's not like she's running for office. I think Alaskans will think better of her as the dust settles.
I think Robert Barnett is the book deal lawyer. Seems like they're all coordinating.
hmmmmm...maybe they'll move up the release date to Christmas this year heh heh
UPDATE: Yup its him
Barnett is one of the premier authors' representatives in the world. His clients have included Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Bob Woodward, Lynne Cheney, Alan Greenspan, James Patterson, Katharine Graham, Tim Russert, Stephen White, George Will, Art Buchwald, James Carville, Mary Matalin, William Bennett, Cokie Roberts, several former U.S. Secretaries of State, numerous U.S. Senators, Tony Blair of the United Kingdom, Queen Noor of Jordan, Benazir Bhutto of Pakistan, and many others, including journalists, novelists, business leaders, public figures, politicians, and others.
FYI:
July 30, 2009: It’s been a week since President Obama’s nationally televised press conference. The scheduled topic was health care and the event also drew notice because of comments the President made about an incident involving a white police officer and a black Harvard professor.
Since the press conference, the President’s overall ratings have slipped a bit. His total approval declined from 51% on the morning of the conference to 48% today. His Approval Index fell from -6 to -12 over the same period. While these declines are not enormous, it is unusual for a President to lose ground in the polls following a nationally televised event featuring the President in a formal setting.
Rasmussen Reports has interviewed 1,342 Democrats since the press conference in our daily Presidential Tracking Poll. We took a look at these results and compared them with polling for the week before the press conference and found some intriguing shifts.
First, while African-Americans have strongly supported the President throughout his time in office, enthusiasm spiked over the past week. The number of black Democrats who Strongly Approve of the President grew from 64% before the conference to 76% over the past week. Both before and after, more than 90% at least somewhat approved.
As for white Democrats, there was much less of a shift. The number who Strongly Approve dipped from 52% to 48%. Total approval barely budged—77% before the Press conference and 76% after.
On the ideological front, there was no movement at all among Liberal Democrats. In the week before the press conference, 68% Strongly Approved. In the week after, that number was 69%. Total approval was 84% before the press conference and 85% after.
However, following the press conference, the President’s support declined among Moderate Democrats and increased among Conservative Democrats. The number of Moderate Democrats who Strongly Approve fell from 52% to 41%. The number of Conservative Democrats who Strongly Approve jumped from 33% to 42%.
"Sarah Palin - A leader without a party" - an excellent article by American Thinker that everyone should read.
It should be pointed out that Hays makes absolutely no attempt to find out whether those responding are dems, reps or independent voters. They call up 400 random people, that's it.
It's just a junk poll.
Polls that just use 400 random adults can be well off. Ann Hays tends to underpoll Republicans. So Palin is still probaly over 50%. It doesn't matter though as Palin will not be on the ballot again until 2012 at the earliest. I think that over time that they some Alaskans will come back to Sarah. They will remember that she was a good Governor.
Tommy,
On Obama. His declining poll numbers may have more to do with that he is Governing as a liberal than the Gates issue. They are both playing into it though. His two big initiatives are unpopular. Healthcare and Cap and Tax.
Mudflats? Don't you mean JEANNE DEVON?
Ya beat me to it, Betty. I was going to say the same thing. Why don't we refer to this blogger by her name now that we know who she is?
And far as the polls...if any person or org has the money, they can run an ad on TV/radio/newspaper about any random poll they do and make it sound worthwhile.
I would venture to say that most of the masses don't even know who is or is not a reputable polling group.
Here's a question, though, that
'ethics' video was under a site that Jeanne Devon herself owned, what is the logic of that. She didn't know that these connections were being made, or she did.
Also, on the Rasmussen poll, how can Conservative Democrats have improved their support of Obama, that press conference, insulted every conceivable principle one could believe though.
Thanks for the post, TommyReport. One correction in paragraph 3: I think you mean "bated" breath, not "abated" breath.
Re: the ethics video, I posted it again at my blog to get the word out as much as possible:
www.viewfromstonewater.blogspot.com
As of this typing, the video is still playing ...
BTW, more info has been added to the vid.
this is the same poll that had don young losing by 8 points
and stevens by 10
These junk polls are part of the attack on Sarah Palin right now. They are to prove that she is irrelevent and has not political future. Of course the fact that they are doing these polls proves otherwise.
She would win reelection easy if she ran again. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool.
Hays' polls have been way off for some reason, I can't imagine who his clients are.
Last spring, Bob Penney ran a poll in Alaska on Palin's re-election chances. Penney, you wll recall, is a longtime Republican and a close friend of the Murkowskis - he was the one who sold a prime Kenai River lot to Lisa for way under value and then they had to reverse the deal when the details became known.
At any rate, Penney is no fan of Palin's and was casting about to find someone to back against Sarah. According to his polling, nobody in Alaska could beat her. Nobody.
A few days later, Hays came out with a poll showing Palin's approval at 54%, hardly unbeatable.
Alaska is a big, extremely diverse state and all the pollsters here do a very poor job. They miss whole regions of the state and always count SouthEast and Fairbanks too high. They miss Wasilla and miss the western coast.
None of them are any better than a dart board.
Murkowski was supposed to lose to Fran Ulmer; he won by 15%. Palin was supposed to finish 2nd in her primary, she won easily. She was supposed to lose to Tony Knowles, she won by 8%.
The polls are always off and always low for Republicans.
Hayes polls are always off because it has a low number of 400 and just adults. Also Hayes doesn't have the party breakdown. The Hayes poll can have way to many Democrats in it. Alaska is always one of the hardest states to poll. Hayes is always slanted 8-12 pts in favor of Democrats. Palin would have won reelection with 55-60% of vote.
Mudflats = Bagdad Bob
Sarah Palin, a leader without a party. The Tea Party; a movement without a leader. HELLO????
Sarah, come on down to Texas for a visit! We'll gladly get you started! :))
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