Poll: Hoffman Takes the Lead (Updated with Poll internals)
According to a poll commissioned by the Club for Growth and conducted by Bassman Research, third-party conservative candidate Doug Hoffman has taken the lead in the race for the open House seat in New York's 23rd Congressional District:
The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted October 24-25, 2009, shows Conservative Doug Hoffman at 31.3%, Democrat Bill Owens at 27.0%, Republican Dede Scozzafava at 19.7%, and 22% undecided. The poll's margin of error is +/- 5.66%. No information was provided about any of the candidates prior to the ballot question....You can read the entire press release from the Club for Growth announcing the new poll results here.
"Hoffman now has a wide lead among both Republicans and Independents, while Owens has a wide lead among Democrats. Dede Scozzafava's support continues to collapse, making this essentially a two-candidate race between Hoffman and Owens in the final week," concluded Basswood Research's pollster Jon Lerner, who conducted the poll for the Club.
Update: Here are the internals for the poll.
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90 comments:
California is having a NY 23 election!! http://www.harmerforcongress.com/
Check him out and send money and vote for David Harmer. Urgent!!! Urgent!! It was 65% Obama...Put a conservative there.
The Palin Power bounce
The Palin power-bounce
The RNC will fall in line, it is written.
Nice if he wins , so Sarah has something to tell Oprah about..
Sarahcuda!
Tom Mcclintock endorsed him... That means he's good:)
All kinds of log-on problems today; finally got here.
Palin Proving Principle Primes Party.
Hey Newt!....hehehe...
Real Clear Politics talked about this and does make a point that this is a Conservative Pollster and so it may lean a little that way (think CBS, WAPO, NY Times). That said they did counter with the fact Dede stuck her foot in it after any other polls, and endorsements and money have rolled into to Hoffman's camp. He just now has the money for serious campaigning on TV. Folks if anybody has not giving and want to support an Ordinary Barabarian Candidate this is a good choice to start.
Awesome news
I can't get the link to open. Oh not concerned about the big Obama support. He is losing support even in the likes of Cali. Check out their unemployment.
Jeri Thompson said the Hoffman campaign has a big announcement coming later today. Hopefully he'll be announcing that Sarah will be joining him on the trail.
Oh, and Newt can go piss up a rope.
Excellent news, still one week to go. It would be nice of Gov. Palin stopped by to campaign for Hoffman even if just one stop. Bill Clinton has been sending emails in support of Owens. Let's see who has more power, Sarah Palin or Bill Clinton. As a reminder, when Bill Clinton campaigned for Jim Martin he drew a crowd of 3,000 in the heart of Atlanta, a dem stronghold. When Gov. Palin campaigned for Chambliss she did 4 events in one day, drawing crowds of 2,000 in the morning, 2,500 about noon, 3,000 about 3 pm, and 6,000 at 4:30 pm.
The turnout in this election is predicted to be very low, since it's an odd election, and not part of a mid-term or general election. If Gov. Palin just put in one appearance, that would bring out a big crowd, and increase the voter turnout.
Would be great if she did a 2 day tour rally 2 really big early evening events a big win for him would really send the rinos a message
I heard that Jeri has a big announcement too..and she is pretty close to Sarah so maybe Sarah is gonna campaign for Doug..OMG that would be a HUGE boost to Hoffman's campaign..and HAHA,,I wanna see Newt piss on a rope, is that even possible LOL
Hi Pec
Just google David Harmer and you will find him.
Any more Americans died today in Afganistan!!! While Americans are dying in Afganistan, the NOW are concerned about what his golf partners have in their crotch! From Tammy Bruce, I just about fell off my chair when she said that!!!
And instead of Any
Amen to that!!!
Hey Newt!...Do you know the meaning of...IRRELEVANT??????
That would be a huge move on Gov. Palin's part if she made a campaign appearance in NY23. Already she's fired a shot across the bow of the GOP insiders by publicly endorsing Hoffman. An appearance will be a full out volley right between the eyes. Is she going to push it that far? Hoffman seems to be a good candidate to push her plan to stump for like minded conservatives for the 2010 elections. This is a good place to start. God knows the turn out would be huge. What about the distance though? Alaska isn't just a quick jump to NY. Also, how will that fit into her schedule for her book and speaking tours?
Really, guys, I'm just "talking" to myself here. All these questions popped into my head. The biggest one though is Gov. Palin really going to push back against the GOP more than she has and make a personal appearance. That would be one hell of a barrage against them.
Poor, poor Newt! :(
Shame on Sarah for imposing "national values" on a local election!
Hey Newt!...You were Saying....
Just an ordinary barabarian citizen! You go girl. Hey Newt, you have just been neutered!
My avatar is Gov. Palin's reaction to this news!
An RNC hack tried to focus-group me once. I ate his liver with some Scozza-fava beans and a nice chianti.
Hey Newt!...PITY...
Hoffman surges in New York...
Newt gets hired by NY Yankees to take the used jock straps to the laundromat....
As soon as she's done capaigning for Hoffman she should fly to DC and collect some RINO pelts at the RNC and NRCC.
Hey Newt!...weep...weep..
Hey Newt!...Call Johnny Mac...He'll Listen!
From the "you've got to be f#$king kidding me" department: Newt considering run for prez in 2012
My only concern is did they over poll Seniors? Other than that the #s look relatively close. This would be huge.
Well, Susan Collins just endorsed Dede, so I don't see how Hoffman overcomes that. / sarc
Ciao Bella.
Oh no! Let's hope Olympia Snowe doesn't endorse Dede or Hoffman is toast!
Unfortunately they only polled 300 people. I am always suspicious polls like that. A least it puts a stop to the cries of Hoffman being third from the 10/15 poll by the Dailykos.
Come on Sarah!! give it a last push and show up in NY :). Coming from third and winning would be a great sign of things to come!
Ciao Bello...
Soup Nazi to Newt: "NO.VOTES.4.U! NEXT!!!
True, but as it is a Congressional district rather than nationwide poll, it potentially is more telling than it seems. There is reason to be cautious, as with any poll.
We can't selectively praise those polls we agree with and rationalize the polls we disagree with.
Soup Nazi to Newt: NO.SOUP-port.4.U! NEXT!!!
P.S. And I forgot to say.. if Newt and the RNC are so pragmatic, and care only about the odds of increasing the number of (R)'s in the congress.. once Hoffman is ahead of Dede and close to the nomination they should insists that Dede back out of the race 'for the good of the party'. Otherwise all their reasons so far for supporting Dede would ring untrue.
Maybe Fred and Sarah are going to campaign together....WOW
HAHA, maybe she can get Snarlin' Arlen to endorse her too!
Rino...
How do you "piss up a rope"?...just wondering.
Texmex - If she campaigns she is giving the GOP Insiders "the cold steel". In old days that is the final bayonet charge to finish them off. I believe despite the lack of organization Hoffman has a shot at this.
I don't know GA, this whole campaign is national news. I think the turn out will be huge.
Tex,
Sarah kind of started this whole thing...she needs to finish it.
No matter the out come, she can't just "talk he talk" she needs to "walk the walk" too.
Remember...
"She's taking a risk by endorsing him, since her detractors would savor his defeat. That's good. America needs risk-takers, not undertakers."
Terri,
you don't. It's another way of telling somebody to F off.
Dede just needs a few more things to happen. McCain and Lindsey Graham's endorsements later today and then the Guvanator from CA to fly in to put her over the top. Puke.
How many voters in that district anyway?
Redstate is reporting that Pawlenty is supporting Hoffman. Pawlenty, like his hairstyle, is a little late to the game.
toughluck....
I think once Hoffman gets the lead, or even is looking like he might win this thing, Newt and his crew will back off.
The bottom line with Newt is that he wants a republican to win...he don't care really which one it is.
Love that picture.
Great comment!:)
This poll is spin.
RCP does a good job pointing that yes it may be in error but at the same time there are indications that it could be relatively accurate with Dede's meltdown, Palin's endorsement and money pouring in so he can finally advertise. The one clear thing is Dede is toast and would do everybody but the Dem a favor by throwing in the towel over the next few days.
Terri. Newt was pretty clear that everybody that didn't support Dede was wrong and not part of the "Big Tent".
Apparently the NRCC is still planning on dumping $200,000-$300,000 to Scozzafava even after these new polls (as small as a sample it is).
Exhibit A of why I don't give the NRCC a dime and just give to individual candidates.
On a side note, I heard reports that T-Paw is outraged by the December 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor and is pondering endorsing swift action on the matter.
T-Paw is a day late and a dollar short. I think this is more the establishments sees that Palin is fixing to possibly get a big win and they had to hedge their bet and give T-Paw credit. Sorry T-Paw you can board the train but make no mistake, Palin is driving this train. Enjoy the ride.
Dede won't withdraw, but if she did, it might help Owens. They are splitting the liberal/union/social liberal vote.
Of course, Dede and Doug are splitting the GOP vote.
PEC,
I think the internals to the poll are reasonable. The R/D split in the Daily Kos/Research 2K poll was R +11 and in this one, it's +12. So Owens was helped out as well by the fact that this poll shows more Democrats than in the Kos poll.
The two polls aren't necessarily inconsistent. A lot has happened since that Kos poll was conducted. It's quite possible to believe that conservative Republicans, a group that Hoffman was struggling with, broke his way with the major endorsements.
Agree. I question a couple of the polling #s (is this district this old)? That said Dede is toast. Hoffman may not be beating the Dem but Dede is gone. Newt needs to pull the life support on her there is no pulse. In fact if she cared about the party she too would exit stage right and let Hoffman win.
As for as vote. Special elections are about rallying the base. One agreement is Dede has not done that.
I hope this isn't the big news Jeri Thompson was talking about. Heck I expect Huck and Romney to get on board the Polar Express (Sarah's Train) if Hoffman's lead gets big enough.
The only #s I am concerned is the age. Other than that, yes the #s look about right. Tried to check the Census but couldn't get a read if it was a little old. A side factor to this is elderly people do tend to vote more in offreay and special elections.
The 300 people is a lot considering they only polled a district....NOT A STATE NOR THE ENTIRE COUNTRY...like other national polls only poll between 600 and several thousands for the entire country.
WHY NOT???? Only joking.
So much the better, I read that there are 45,000 more regestered repubs than dems, it could turn out to be a big Hoffman victory, and the bigger the better.
GAHanson,
Wow, this is the best news I have heard all day. Yeah, if Sarah was to appear for Hoffman he would be a shoe-in. Sarah: "Kingmaker"
^^^^Really. What's next, ol' Huck and Romney bringing up the rear?
LOL! Classic!
PEC,
An increase in the percentage of older voters may also help Owens as well. They could be older conservative Democrats or people less inclined to vote for a third-party candidate. To me, younger conservatives are more likely to cross over and vote for Hoffman and that's the group that he's been struggling with.
I think Kos/Research 2K is using a likely voter model that is too optimistic for Democrats. Its last Virginia poll showed 39% of the electorate as Democrats, a number that no other poll has shown.
I think this is what Jeri was talking about. Darn, I was really hoping the big announcement was.... well, BIG!
Sarah needs a couple of wing-men / women. Not that she can't swoop in for the kill herself, but the strong message from several will be better than Sarah going at it alone.
Charter, ha ha, Soup Nazi is a classic
jimr3 : >>Newt's arrogance is breathtaking
but also consistent, like when he took a yellow notepad to his first wifes hospital room, where she was recovering from cancer, and he dicated the terms of their divorce; he was having a fling.
Fling became divorcee # 2, Newt moved on to # 3. Third time's the charm, right ?
re: Pawlenty endorses Hoffman.
Romney was last seen being chased by a bear.
Huck is back in guitar lessons, getting extra credit I think.
re: $$$$ going to DeDe from NRCC:
- Wow, I'm sure that money will be well spent (on consultants, media-hogs, etc.)
- and all down the drain, what a shame . . .
sorry, guys, a sampling of 300 doesn't do much for me. I don't care how small the district is or how "scientific" it is.
But I'm good on the outcome :-)
Could help the Dem. Bottomline, Hoffman needs to rally the base. Special elections ie Chambliss last year was about the base. People in that area if Sarah was to show up wouldn't say "oh Sarah is here I am going to vote for the other person". A few might but the bulk would be to go to her rally and get people to go vote being fired up. In these special elections a few thousand vote is HUGE. Not like a General election where even in a House district you would have to swing 10s of thousands for a big impact.
Would have preferred a smapling of about 500 but this does show at least the Dede is gone. Should send Republicans toward Hoffman.
Sarah's list of accomplishments since "quitting" ...
Cap N Tax shelved for now - CHECK
Death Panels taken out - CHECK
#1 Best-selling memoir - CHECK
NY RINO field-dressed - CHECK
Yep, she and Oprah will have lots to talk about ... assuming her Oneness can give a straight interview without sliding into Couric mode.
Gave him money this morning. Felt really good.
He's working right now on the Contract With Insignificance
I like the idea of Sarah joining Fred and Jeri Thompson. It would give Hoffman some cover (from those overly sensitive independents people keep telling us about).
Heck maybe she could even join Steve Forbes on the trail. Isn't it curious that all the best people are on the good side of this? Sarah supported Forbes over Bush in 2000. It's all making sense now.
Newt Running for President in 2012?
Sarah Palin 75,999,998 votes
Newt 2 ( Himself & His wife)
Obama 5,000,000 legal votes & 5,000,000 illegal corpse votes
Newt is going on Greta tonight. It looks like he is fighting back... Trying to explain his decision again. Greta's headline is "Newt Gingrich Speaks out" No one is buying it, but I guess he thinks he has to repeat it again.
Not Again!...borrrrrrrrrrrrrring....
I guarantee you that if Hoffman wins, Newt and others will be welcoming him with open arms. Newt is just trying support the political establishment in New York. We need new blood at the local level there in NY-23.
I messaged my friend about the Pawlenty endorsement and my friend asked me who Pawlenty was...I was like LMAO.
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