Robert Stacy McCain: NY-23 Saturday Notebook; Update: Scozzafava Quits Race, Text of Withdrawal Added; Update: Blowout?

The Other McCain has been on the road in NY-23 for several days. This morning he posted this report from the ground in Upstate New York:

The cool news? Instapundit linked my American Spectator item about Democrats pouring in the big money against Doug Hoffman. I don't think it will be enough to elect Bill Owens, and I don't think Joe Biden will make a difference, either. Go back and check the 2008 Democratic primaries. The 23rd District was Hillary territory. Biden carries no weight up here. But I'll try to go see Joe, just in case he makes another one of his classic gaffes.

Friday afternoon, when word got around that NRCC was pulling its resources out of Dede Scozzafava's campaign, I overheard a guy explaining to a buddy what Team Hoffman's basic strategy had been from the start: "Kill Dede and we win."

Simple, brutal and true: The 23rd District is overwhelmingly Republican, and the Hoffman people knew that if Scozzafava couldn't get Republican votes, she couldn't win. Once it became apparent to Republican voters that Dede was a guaranteed loser, the momentum shift to Hoffman was inevitable.

This is where Newt Gingrich really exposed his cluelessness, parroting misleading talking-points provided by the equally clueless Republican "insiders" who handpicked Scozzafava and wasted hundreds of thousands of RNC/NRCC dollars on her doomed campaign.

[...]

By trying to depict Hoffman as a "spoiler," Gingrich was 180 degrees out of phase with the truth: Scozzafava is actually the "spoiler" in this race. If you find anybody willing to bet money that Dede will break 20% on Tuesday, take that bet. She could finish as low as 15%, but the one thing I can guarantee she won't do is win.

Maybe Gingrich backed Scozzafava because she reminds him of his favorite subject: Dede is history.

Read the rest here. McCain has lots of good information and is continuously updating from the road in NY-23. Contribute to Doug Hoffman's campaign here.

Update by Doug: (H/T Whitmey) Stacy McCain is reporting that Dede Scozzafava has quite the race:

Just confirmed that Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava has quit the race. Speaking to supporters, Scozzafava broke down in tears.

[...]

Scozzafava, the hand-picked choice of the New York state GOP in the key 23rd District special election, reportedly will throw her support to Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman.

Ed Morrissey at Hot Air is confirming the story, as is Josh Kraushaar at the Politico.

Update II by Doug: (H/T Stacy McCain) Ali Akbar has text of Scozzafava's announcement:

Dear Friends and Supporters:

Throughout the course of my campaign for Congress, I have made the people of the 23rd District and the issues that affect them the focal point of my campaign. As a life long resident of this District, I care deeply and passionately about its people and our way of life. Whether as a candidate for Congress, a State Assemblywoman or a small town Mayor, I have always sought to act with the best interest of our District and its residents in mind—and today I again seek to act for the good of our community.

The opportunity to run as the Republican and Independence Party candidate to represent the 23rd District has been and remains one of the greatest honors of my life. During the past several months, as I’ve traveled the district, meeting and talking with voters about the issues that matter most to them, I’ve been overwhelmed by the amount of support I’ve received as I sought to serve as their voice in Washington. However, as Winston Churchill once said, Democracy can be a fickle employer, and the road to public office is not always a smooth one.

In recent days, polls have indicated that my chances of winning this election are not as strong as we would like them to be. The reality that I’ve come to accept is that in today’s political arena, you must be able to back up your message with money—and as I’ve been outspent on both sides, I’ve been unable to effectively address many of the charges that have been made about my record. But as I’ve said from the start of this campaign, this election is not about me, it’s about the people of this District. And, as always, today I will do what I believe serves their interests best.

It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican. It is my hope that with my actions today, my Party will emerge stronger and our District and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations.

On Election Day my name will appear on the ballot, but victory is unlikely. To those who support me – and to those who choose not to – I offer my sincerest thanks.

Dede

Update III by Doug: (H/T jimr3) Via Fox News:

Ken Spain, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said Scozzafava is releasing supporters to vote for Hoffman.

This is all great news, but it's not over yet folks. Scozzafava's name will still be on the ballot and the Democrat Party is pouring money into this race. Go to Doug Hoffman's website, open up those wallets, and dig deep if you can.

Update IV by TR: Prior to this news, PPP(D) found that Hoffman was on his way to a blowout:

With about 200 interviews down we had Hoffman 45 Owens 26 Scozzafava 17...her withdrawal will just make it that much easier for Hoffman

However, the Siena poll conducted before this news shows a toss-up between Hoffman and Owens, with Hoffman gaining 12 points since the last Siena poll. His Republican support has increased from 27% to 50%.

Either way, Hoffman is now an overwhelming favorite to win on Intrade.