Palin/Obama Polling Update
-Rasmussen shows Obama leading Governor Palin by a 46-43 margin. This result represents an improvement from the 48-42 lead that Obama held over Palin in Rasmussen's July poll. Governors Romney and Huckabee are also doing very well against Obama.
-Rasmussen doesn't appear to be an outlier either. According to PPP(D), she trails Obama by 8 points in its most recent poll, an improvement over the 15-point deficit she faced in the pollster's September poll.
-While Rasmussen didn't poll who would lead in a primary matchup of Republicans, Rasmussen did find that Palin held the highest favorable rating among Republicans at 81% (Huckabee had an 80% favorable rating among Republicans while Romney had a 63% favorable rating) and the highest "very favorable" rating among Republicans at 51% (Huckabee had a 40% "very favorable" rating among Republicans while Romney had a 17% "very favorable" rating among Republicans).
-SurveyUSA released its monthly state-by-state approval numbers for Obama in November. I think it is fair to say that the numbers are brutal for the President.
Obama Approval/Disapproval
Alabama 38/59
California 53/38
Kansas 38/58
Kentucky 38/58
Missouri 38/58
New York 53/39
Oregon 47/47
Virginia 37/60
Washington 48/48
Posts
85 comments:
Slow and steady wins the race....:)
Interesting, but meaningless. There is such a long road ahead.
I don't watch state by state but Washington and Oregon are interesting. They must be getting a lot of influence from Manajordan and Gelston!
This is really meaningless so far out from the real campaign. but on the other hand it does show that Sarah Palin has begun the process of reclaiming her image and message with the public, showing a sharp improvement in a short period of time. I knew this would happen, but it is nice to see evidence of it at last.
In related news:
<span>A historic devlepment in our polling indicates President Obama's ratings may soon defy the laws of mathematics and post a negative integer for approval, the first time this has happened in the history of Brian72 PersonalPolling, LLC. Dissaproval has become so intense among Brian72's as to warp the mathematical laws of the universe, possibly creating a polling black hole, a unique phemomenon where the negative gravity is so strong that no positive numbers may escape it's grip. We are currently evaluating a new system to cope with this disturbing development. Stay tuned for updates.</span>
I noticed this too. I think if Sarah were to win in 2012, she will take the same states that Bush took in 2004 including a close CO. She may then pull off an upset in WI, NH, and now it appears OR, WA.
I really think with her conservative-libertarian brand of feminism combined with her common sense views on the environment, she may have a chance to pull off an upset in OR and WA.
Try going to a Celsius system. :)
I think one of the most interesting thing to consider in these polls is that only Palin has had the test of fire...not Huck, Romney or even the President. These three probably have many things that can be brought to the attention of everyone that has not been touched on before. Palin has very little left that hasn't been on the front burner of negative comments whether true or not.
Regardless of who the Rep. candidate is next time you can bet on the fact that Obama will be raked over the coals....he had a easy ride the first time, that will not happen again.
After the book tour Palin should hunker down with policy advisors and when she feels she is ready she should hit the sunday shows.
Palin would win Virginia. After the 2010 census and we know the electoral college, then we can make up maps that show she can win. I have been messing around with it myself and it looks good, very doable. Basically she can afford to lose a few of the bush 2004 states, and still win.
Since red states will get a little electoral count boost.
Unfortunately my stupid state..California is too filled with dum dums to vote Republican. It would be great for a true Conservative to take over and fix this state, Maybe we will stand a chance with DeVore, he seems like a good guy
a little off topic but fox news website has a couple of interesting articles on the gov- how she has inspired other working women to run for office and how she has the "it" factor
a little off topic but fox news website has a couple of interesting articles on the gov- how she has inspired other working women to run for office and how she has the "it" factor
here is one prediction for the changes in 2010, with additional predictions for 2020 and 2030, if you are worried about Piper's chances. :<)
http://www.openleft.com/diary/13226/future-of-the-electorate-2010-reapportionment
I'M sorry TommyReport... But I'm holding out my opinion, until Techno gives me his, Official opinion on the NUMBERS that you just gave. Techno is the place I go to for the number"s here at C4P. hahahahaha
sarah 2012
Hey Lakerfan--what do you know about Duncan Hunter Jr? Any good? True Conservative?
Thanks for the separate thread Tommy. Just speaking for myself I think some C4P readers and posters may be a little ticked off that we use the open thread to discuss polls, but where else do we relay the info.
I think the entire week or so since the Nov 16 release of the Rasmussen poll showing Palin's F/UF at 51/43 have reflected or highlighted the the ability of Sarah Palin to re-introduce herself to the American people. She is right back in the game and really her strategy to lay low from American media exposure for about 4 months is now completely vindicated and appears now to be a work of genius.
Frankly, I am quite surprised how fast the dumb bimbo narrative has evaporated into thin air and in contrast how fast liberal Republicans types like Joe Scarborough and Matthew Dowd and even Newt Gingrich are now touting Palin's viability for 2012.
But I am not surprised how precipitate Obama's decline in <50 territory has been. Don't get me wrong. I don't think Obama is stupid. What I think has happened is that Palin has discombobulated Obama's nefarious plans and agenda and thrown everything for a loop. Axelrod and Emmanuel had not counted on Palin resigning from office and escaping the foxhole while they held her under siege. They had always known that RINO's like McCain and Graham offered really no opposition and that the GOP in general lacked the leadership to pose any serious threat to the throne of the Anointed One as it was charismatically challenged or possessed of too much white guilt. They had Palin in their crosshairs. She should be destroyed by now. Their mistake is that they allowed her to escape to as she says 'reload' and to advance in another direction.
And Obama is paying for that big time now with his poll numbers. Palin is like an ankle-biting, fierce chihuahua who will not let goal of Obama's pant leg, who becomes his omnipresent nemesis any time he embarks on a course of action, and finally usurps his celebrity status by proving to be more popular than him.
Happy Thanksgiving Sarah. Gal, you did good!
yep ... Sarah is coming on strong, and I think she'll be out there extensively as a surrogate during the midterm elections.
I am actually pretty surprised that only 53% approve in CA. When I think of California I think of at least 65% of the electorate being die hard democrats. 53% is a good starting point as far as I'm concerned.
"<span>They had Palin in their crosshairs. She should be destroyed by now."</span>
I think that Obama and his thugs main downfall is their inability to understand the capabilities and dedication of the American people. Obama and his crew from Chicago are geniuses when it comes to politics and political manipulation but they do not understand the lengths Americans will go to to protect their freedoms. I think that this is a huge blind spot for the administration and it is going to cost them. Also, due to Obama's colossal ego, he will not see the warning signs or learn from his mistakes.
I disagree with you Brian. For a politician like Palin, rosy polls are extremely important in order to increase her viability and credibility. The longer Sarah remained a fair distance back from Obama in a head to head match up (8-15 points) the harder it would be to buck or disabuse the notion that she was unelectable. Even the most ardent rational skeptic would have to admit after this week that Palin is at a minimum competitive, not only with Mitt and Huck but with the Messiah himself.
As I have always maintained the huge challenge for Sarah to overcome is to establish herself as a WORTHY, SERIOUS AND LEGITIMATE candidate for the presidency in terms of how she is seen by the grassroots. Part of it yes it because Sarah is a woman. It is what it is. Part of it is that she only served 2 and 1/2 years as governor and resigned from office and the rest is based on Sarah being an anti-establishment candidate.
I know most people on our side attacked Obama for citing his experience in running a campaign as his experience to be POTUS but I was not one of them because I saw the same road for Sarah-like Obama she will have to prove herself on the campaign trail and beyond that on the battlefield of the 2010 midterms. Great poll numbers will attract more folks asking for her blessing and of course more money to run a campaign. Sarah doesn't need to be ahead of Obama but IMHO she has to remain competitive up to the primaries. And I think she will.
So true Techno. They completely failed to stop Sarah and she was the only one that voiced opposition in the republican party. OK DeMint and Pence were there but great summary of the situation.
I would rephrase slightly, techno. Anklebiter has a special meaning around here, and I wouldn't say Sarah is an anklebiter. The analogy would be better as an Arctic Timberwolf, stalking Obama's moves from the treeline. She's rattling his nerves with a loud howl right when he is distracted with something else. He can't quite pin her down, he just knows she's on his trail. He knows the full moon will rise, and she will come out of the trees eventually. Then he's screwed, because there will be a pack with her. That's us!
Ditto the Happy Thanksgiving to Sarah and all of you as well.
What about Ohio and Pennsylvania, not to forget the all important Florida, plus North Carolina?
Indiana is traditionally red and went for Obama very narrowly as well. Nevada is another one.
Did I hear someone calling my name? Indemind I agree with Tommy. Sure I would have liked to have seen Sarah ahead of Obama in the head-to-head matchup overall but what you have to understand there is still one chink in the armor that Sarah has not sealed yet and that has to do with the 'resignation' or 'quitting meme'. This will not be sealed overnight. It will take several more months of constant proficiency on Sarah's part to pull it off and to convince the skeptics (and many of them are from her own party) that Obama will not be able to hold this issue over Sarah's head and beat her to death with it. Quite honestly, if Sarah were not a superstar I don't think she could pull it off. But as a superstar she will and I do believe in the next 18 months you will see a political performance from Sarah that will rival Tiger Woods' 18 months in the last half of 1999 and 2000 where he won 17 times, including 4 majors.
Fasten your seat beat, indemind-it's going to be a great ride.
To tell you the truth... Im wore out with polls, especially at this point!
The only poll, sort-of-speak now, is to sit back and marvel at Everything-Sarah that's going on! ... massive support and turn-out at Book signings... any and all Functions, that she not only attends, but is Keynote Speaker!
Heaven only knows how many more hundreds of engagements are pending or confirmed... I hear all the time when calling confirmed venues about possible tickets that they have WORKED diligently for at least a YEAR to get Sarah! Many, if not all those non-book-signing venues she has scheduled were planned before she resigned... and we've heard before about the 1100 requests that I'll bet are still pending.
That's all the so called poll I need at this point... Support is boiling over like lava gushing-out from one of those Alaskan Volcanos!!... and the lame-stream media/elite better get their butts out of the way or will for ever be encased as solidified rock-lava!
Great analogy. AAAAARRRRROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!
Well, yes, it does mean something, just not much for the Presidential race this far out. The real test will be 2010 midterms, and what impact she has there. Then we will see her ratings improve more, IMO. It will matter more then, closer to the 2012 race. The improvement in the last couple of surveys does force the naysayers to accept that her Republican support is not going anywhere, and that she is becoming much more viable among independents. Some detractors have been giving a little grudging respect between slams lately. So it does mean something for sure, short term. It really helps to begin the slow death of the "quitter" chorus, which will help a lot.
I was watching the documentary yesterday on HBO called "How Obama got Elected." I had seen it on a few times and skipped over it b/c I didn't think I could stomach to watch that. But this time I did. They featured some of the die-hard Obama supporters who worked in Iowa for all those months and showed the emotion when they saw Obama win Iowa. His campaign organization was a well-oiled machine. And what made him so tough was his support among the grassroots.
I can imagine Sarah's campaign with these same types of die-hard supporters in a few years from now. People who will go the extra mile to see Sarah's campaign succeed. The energy on the other side will no doubt be much lower next time around. And I couldn't help but wonder if many of those people who attended those rallies in the film would still do so knowing what they know now about an Obama presidency.
Sure, the die-harders and true believers of Obama would, but I think many of those independents and cross-over Republicans will be hard to come by in a few years and they'll swing back in the other direction.
I know I'm getting ahead of myself, but hey guys I live in Chicago. Nothing would make me happier than to see Axelrod, Plouffe, Obama, Emanuel and the rest of the Brain Trust lose in a few years. I guess I'm just hoping my fantasy comes true. I know it's possible.
Don't forget she has family in WA, is spending Thanksgiving there, running a race there, and may continue to do events there while visiting family.
In retrospect Brian72 would Obama be any worse shape if he had just left Palin alone and hadn't authorized a full-scale assault on her while she retreated to Alaska. Sure Palin could have still not run for re-election but I suspect she wouldn't have had a good reason to resign in July. She probably would have held off to next spring at the earliest when Going Rogue was slated to be released. And she wouldn't have had an extra 6-9 months to have gotten her ducks in a row and make her presence felt in the lower 48. Actually as I have written earlier this week, Huck might have sealed the deal with the evangelical community by next spring; he was well on his way to doing that if you believe the polls.
Not only is Obama upset with the turn of events, but Huck is big time; he knew this past spring he had a real good chance of cutting Sarah off from the religious communities; now he is fighting an uphill battle to stay viable. As for Mitt, Sarah has simply sucked all the oxygen from the room. Rasmussen shows his extremely viable, but I wonder about Rasmussen and Romney. PPP does not show the same glowing results. As for Gingrich and Pawlenty, Sarah just makes it ten times more difficult to gain traction.
But when it is all said and done and if you happen to eavesdrop in the corridors of power in Washington, you will hear over and over from politicians and pundits, "Damn you maverick."
The CRAP slung at Sarah never did stick... and what might have splattered on her has since dried up and blown away in one of those cold northers from Alaska!
It's SPRING TIME Sarah now!... everything is warming up!... and blooming and budding out in all GODS glorious colors... and IT LOOKS MAGNIFICENT!
Unlike you I thrive on the polls. I can't get enough of them, especially the ones that show Obama is going into the tank. i relish those with so much delight. Call it a political bloodlust.
You aren't alone. If you haven't already, go read Hillbuzz. They are in Boystown-Chicago and can't stand Obama. They want to help Sarah beat the HopeyChage Machine in 2012, unless the Democrats dump Dr. Utopia (as they call him) and nominate Hillary instead. Those guys are full of good ideas about networking and fighting the caucus dirty tricks that got him the nod in '08. Obviously I don't agree with them on everything, but they are fun to read, like when they rip on Michelle Obama's wardrobe like only gay dudes can. Funny stuff.
New Moon Trailer with Sarah Palin
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GM8h6mVWX60&feature=player_embedded
I actually thought this was pretty funny. It also goes to show you what kind of a cultural icon Gov. Palin has become.
Once a Palinista always a Palinista.
Yes, the energy on our side will be super-charged with Sarah being our warrior princess, but you cannot count on Obama's forces to lack for enthusiasm or conviction. Remember these folks are Marxists. Have you ever seen pictures or real-life movies of the Communist Revolution in Russia in 1917 or movies like Dr. Zhivago or Reds? These folks, chicago's conservative are fanatics. They have waited 40 years to take over the American government and convert America into a socialist totalitarian state. Do you really think they are going to go gently into the night and let the former mayor of Wasilla destroy everything they have worked for? One thing I always attempt to do at C4P is to keep it real. There is no way George Soros and the millionaires and billionaires in the shadow party are going down without a fight. They are even willing to keep a loser like Levi Johnston on their payroll for life if they have to.
Expect the worse from the Far Left. They are preparing right now on how to orchestrate the next huge 'crisis' so that Obama can declare some sort of national emergency.
Are you guys twins? All you pollsters look so much alike. As in... Avatar averse.
For this administration, it's best to work in imaginary numbers.
"If you strike me down in anger, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine."
Being within the margin of error with the incumbent president is both very good news for Sarah - even this far out - and very bad news for the incumbent. Pundits can call her "a joke" all they want, but they aren't laughing at 1600 Pensylvania Ave. That's why she needs to monitor long-range sensors, because they will try to destroy her.
I agree. Former Californian here.
TECHNO
I thank you for your number crunching... Im actually and Engineer(retired) but poll numbers have not been much interest to me... their always subjective to the point of confusion and unreliable and just seem worthless effort.
Anyway, keep doing your thing, I do look at them.
My avatar is supposed to be the Time Magazine cover with the Sarah close up. Can you not see it on your end?
If she could show proof that the FOIA requests and ethics complaints were being funded by Obama associates, she would have a smoking gun to use against him. It would also help her explain more clearly the reason she quit. <span>We </span>understand, but she hasn't laid it out in unambiguous language yet for the public; I'm not even sure the book does that.
WOLVERINES!
Techno ....next up 2 words Climate Change, 2 more words Smart Grid.
Just another way to get inside your house.
Rush. hit on this today. and the ONE is going to attend the C/C in Denmark.
sarah 2012
Me too...I'm in Calif.
...and I am so glad that you do.
And, like I have said several times. Obama and others have already shot their wad with Sarah and there isn't much more they can say. But, there is lots more to say about Obama and they know that and they know Sarah is not afraid to say it. Also, they can't really fight back now against her....whe is just a private citizen that disagrees with the administration.
Me too Tech. I love every minute of the polls. I love OBAMA going in the tank more then Sarah being up...Sarah being up will come and I have always felt that.
WOOT! obama down to just 47% favorable in oregon.
Isolated poll results that deserve more attention:
1) ABC poll on Palin:
F UF
WHITE WOMEN/SUBURBS 50 46
2) Rasmussen poll Nov 16 on Sarah Palin's F/UF
F UF
40K-60K 57 40
60K-80K 59 40
3) Fox News poll comparison of GOP contender's indie F/UF
F UF
Palin 49 38
Huckabee 44 28
Romney 35 34
4) PPP F/UF of GOP contenders in the mid-west
F UF
Palin 47 41
Huckabee 45 30
Romney 33 34
Hey Tech, what is your opinion about Sarah declaring....of course assuming all things are in a row for her to declare. Will she do it early or hold her fire????
She has the smoking gun. Remember John Ziegler had a lady on his radio show Pamela ? who basically traced the anklebiters and left wing bloggers in Alaska to Axelrod; also more obvious is the Soros and shadow party connection to Levi Johnston. And finally there is book The Thumpin': How Rahm Emmanuel and the Democrats Learned to be Ruthless and Ended the Republican Revolution that was a blueprint to send Palin into bankruptcy.
very funny...
Very funny was supposed to be a reply to Sapwood's Celsius commment...
I wonder what is going on in Washington and Oregon? The people I know there are all Obats, but maybe there is hope after all.
Guest, can you give us the links?
Hold her fire until after the 2010 midterms; I assume your talking about DECLARING for president. No need to attract more attention but there may be one consideration that forces her to go early-I'm not an expert in this-her personal security to qualify for secret service protection.
They bussed people in from Chicago to go to the Iowa caucuses; it was a total fraud. They need to outlaw caucuses.
Not as good as his Dad. I think he's just now getting his feet wet, Not saying alot.
Got to say I don't live in his district here in S.D. But old Duncan was always speeking out. on everything. Good man old Duncan.
sarah 2012
OK if you didn't see this it is Coach Mike Ditka and how we need Sarah Palin.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLquecnfyZc
at about 1:40
Sorry, techno...
Heresay and innuendo do not quite measure up to proof let alone a "smoking gun." Now I may be displaying my ignorance of the connections you cite, but if there were some hacked emails (as with the global warming fiasco), then I would be happy to jump up and shout "huzzah"! Util then, I think it's an area of vulnerability given the lame stream media's proclivity.
Love Ditka.
Cool!
It really isnt hard to see how Sarah could win in 2012. She wins the Bush states and even can afford to lose a few of those and still win. Also, if somehow she was able to turn a pennylvania or wisconsin or michigan, then I think its guaranteed for her.
Now Jacob is technically a good guy though
From Slowburn at HA:
"The INDEPENDENTS have discovered the party is over, and the hangover is going to be a b*tch."
Da Coach!! I still blame him for O being where he is today. I lived in IL at the time and the Repubs wanted Ditka to run against Obama for Senator. Ditka would have won in a landslide but he wanted to stay in football so we have O. :(
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/11/25/palin-motivates-mothers-launch-political-campaigns/?test=latestnews
http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/2009/11/23/rogue-politician-best-selling-author-defining-sarah-palins-factor/
I think the way to understand it, is that this is not an ego thing for her, it is her respect for the military, the common man and woman, the life ethic, that really puts her above the rest. Romney would like it as a title, Huckabee who knows why, but she would have a particular purpose in seeking the office, to do great things
I disagree. It's not meaningless. It shows that when she's seen and gets her side out, her numbers skyrocket. That's not a bad quality for a politician to have--in fact no one else out there has it. It's been <span>one week</span>. This book tour's been a triumph.
She'll turn the rest of the tour into a listening tour, be seen in local markets and then back to Alaska to type, type, type, send and speak at venues of her choosing where she'll be more in demand then ever.
Hold fire until mid 11. Start getting her ducks in a row starting in 10 though.
Compare the relative testosterone levels between the guys who support Sarah and the guys who don't (Brooks/Frum, etc.). They should do a little study.
I think there are several states she can turn. Virginia,Michigan, Missouri, Colorado and possibles of Ohio,Pennsylvania. Much depends on the next 2 1/2 years but it looks promising.
Because of the makeup of the states, if she were to win ANY of the SOLID BLUE states, that would mean she most likely is winning the swing states easilly, which means HELLO WHITE HOUSE.
Just look at bush 2004 map and subtract Iowa and New Mexico and she wins with 274. That is the baseline to win. AND that is before the electoral college changes that will help the red states.
This last 10 days has been historic in so many ways, not the least is Sarah's surge in the polls. With that in mind I am going to share with you all of Sarah's PPP polling data going back to March and compare how she stood compared to Obama over time to give you an appreciation how far Sarah has come:
DATE OBAMA PALIN NET
MARCH 18 55/37 39/50 -29
55 35 -20
APRIL 23 53/41 42/49 -19
53 41 -12
MAY 21 55/38 42/50 -25
56 37 -19
JUNE 18 52/44 43/49 -14
52 40 -12
JULY 20 50/43 47/45 -5
51 43 -8
DATE OBAMA PALIN NET
AUG 20 52/42 40/48 -18
52 38 -14
SEPT 24 52/44 37/55 -26
53 38 -15
OCT 22 51/43 36/51 -26
53 39 -14
NOV 20 49/46 40/49 -12
51 43 -8
It is a credit to the Palinistas that we stuck with Sarah through thick and thin, that starting with December's PPP poll (reflecting hopefully the surge that was caused at the beginning of the Going Rogue tour) we should see even better numbers.
I really think PPP underpolls her. and they are a dem outfit. I know you are just working with the numbers they give, but it seems they underpoll her when compared to others.
Here is a summary of Sarah Palin's F/UF with INDEPENDENTS for the month of November:
F UF
ECON/YG 11/6 38.0
FOX 11/19 49 38
ABC 11/16 45 47
RASM 11/16 55 43
PPP 11/20 36 49
Being a Democratic pollster PPP caters to the desire of their client, and it doesn't take a genius to figure out that it is in the best interest of the Obama administration to keep Palin's F/UF depressed and her matchup against Obama as wide a margin as possible.
Secondly in the last 3 months what I have noticed is that all 3 GOP candidates overall F/UF and indie F/UF have been depressed in the mid 30's while Obama's numbers are in the 40's. Here are Novembers:
OVERALL:
F UF
OBAMA 49 46
HUCKABEE 36 37
PALIN 40 49
ROMNEY 30 39
Now compare to Rasmussen and Fox
RASM FOX
F UF F UF
HUCKABEE 58 30 45 23
PALIN 46 49 47 42
ROMNEY 49 38 38 27
OBAMA 47 51 46 46
INDIES:
OBAMA 47 46
HUCKABEE 32 41
PALIN 36 49
ROMNEY 31 37
Now compare to Fox News
F UF
HUCKABEE 44 28
PALIN 49 38
ROMNEY 35 34
OBAMA 34 51
If PPP comes out in December with November type numbers for Obama vs the 3 GOP candidates then we will know that they have gone completely in the tank for the Messiah.
Post a Comment