Washington Post Poll: Palin Leads Among Republicans/Republican-Leaning Indies (Updated with Data and Bad News for Obama)
At least that is what I think the Washington Post is saying:
In a new Washington Post poll, Palin beats other GOP leaders on two questions: who best represents the party's core values, and who Republicans would vote for if the presidential nomination battle were held today. But she has particular appeal to the loyal followers of Limbaugh and Beck, two of the most popular conservative talk show hosts in the country.
Overall, 18 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents cited her as the person most representative of the party's core values, the highest percentage among prominent Republican figures. Among those who regularly listen to Limbaugh, however, Palin was cited by 48 percent, and among Beck's viewers, it was 35 percent, far surpassing others.
The pattern held when Republicans considered their possible choices for 2012. Palin led other Republicans, but with the support of just 17 percent. Forty-five percent of regular Limbaugh listeners said they would vote for her if their state's primary or caucus were held today, however, as did a third of those who regularly tune in to Beck's radio or television programs....
Those who identify as Republicans today see themselves as more conservative politically than those who said so during the last years of the presidency of George W. Bush, and this increasing conservatism shows up in Palin's draw. The former Alaska governor appeals strongly to the "very conservative," to regular churchgoers and to white evangelical Protestants.
Almost half of all Republican and GOP-leaning independents alike said they think Palin has had a good effect on their party, compared with 20 percent who think she has had a negative effect. Eighty percent of Limbaugh listeners and 70 percent of Beck viewers said she has had a positive impact.
Nearly all Republicans have sympathy for Palin for the treatment she has received from the news media since she burst onto the national stage as John McCain's vice presidential running mate last year. Overall, 87 percent said the media have treated her unfairly.
You can read the entire article here. I'll provide an update when the actual poll results are released.
Update: Palin has the lead according to the Washington Post.
11. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) Thinking about Republican leaders today - which one person best reflects the core values of the Republican Party?
Sarah Palin 18
John McCain 13
Mike Huckabee 7
Mitt Romney 6
Newt Gingrich 4
16. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) If the 2012 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote?
Sarah Palin 17
Mike Huckabee 10
Mitt Romney 9
John McCain 7
Newt Gingrich 2
Bobby Jindal 1
Ron Paul 1
Rudy Giuliani 1
Tim Pawlenty 1
Update #2: Only 24% of the adults polled say they would definitely vote to re-elect Obama in 2012. 41% of the adults polled say they definitely would not vote for him.






75 comments:
Re: Paragraph 2
Hey Washington Post, you use the word "however" when your statement contrast your previous statement, not when it complements your previous statement.
I should be a bit more positive. These are good numbers, assuming that the sampling technique was good.
They assigned two writers to this WaPo piece and I still don't know what the hell they're saying.
Why didn't they just report the facts?
It seems like they were trying to tar Palin as an extremist who only appealed to the Limbaugh/Bech "fanatics" and turned off indies. But their headline suggested that Palin attracted more right-leaning indie support than anybody else.
What gives WaPo?
11. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) Thinking about Republican leaders today - which one person best reflects the core values of the Republican Party?
<pre> 11/23/09
Sarah Palin 18
John McCain 13
Mike Huckabee 7
Mitt Romney 6
Newt Gingrich 4
Rush Limbaugh 2
Bobby Jindal 1
Colin Powell 1
George Bush 1
George W. Bush 1
John Boehner 1
Kay Bailey Hutchison 1
Lindsey Graham 1
Mike Pence 1
Mitch McConnell 1
Ron Paul 1
Ronald Reagan 1
Rudy Giuliani 1
Tim Pawlenty 1
Charles Grassley *
Glenn Beck *
Haley Barbour *
Jeb Bush *
Jim DeMint *
John Thune *
Michael Steele *
There is no leader 8
Other 9
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_113009.html?hpid=topnewsNo opinion 20
</pre>
<pre></pre>
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_113009.html?hpid=topnews
11. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) Thinking about Republican leaders today - which one person best reflects the core values of the Republican Party?
<pre> 11/23/09
Sarah Palin 18
John McCain 13
Mike Huckabee 7
Mitt Romney 6
Newt Gingrich 4
Rush Limbaugh 2
Bobby Jindal 1
Colin Powell 1
George Bush 1
George W. Bush 1
John Boehner 1
Kay Bailey Hutchison 1
Lindsey Graham 1
Mike Pence 1
Mitch McConnell 1
Ron Paul 1
Ronald Reagan 1
Rudy Giuliani 1
Tim Pawlenty 1
Charles Grassley *
Glenn Beck *
Haley Barbour *
Jeb Bush *
Jim DeMint *
John Thune *
Michael Steele *
There is no leader 8
Other 9
No opinion 20
</pre>
I just finished "Going Rogue". If the symbolism in the last few pages of the epilogue mean what I think they mean, she is running!
I graduate in May 2011, and if the construction industry is in the tank still I will probably be unemployed. i.e. i will be a full time volunteer in her campaign :)
Oh sure.. Anyone else get the feeling of "jumping o the gravy train?"
Cripes.. yup ...Hey fellas...WE KNEW IT ALL ALONG!
Dorks!
<span>Oh sure.. Anyone else get the feeling of "jumping on the gravy train?"
Cripes.. yup ...Hey fellas...WE KNEW IT ALL ALONG!
Dorks!</span>
18. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) Thinking now about Sarah Palin, do you think she has a (good) effect on the Republican Party, a (bad) effect on the party or hasn't made a difference either way?
<pre> Good Bad Hasn't made No
effect effect a difference opinion
11/23/09 46 20 32 1
</pre>
19. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) Generally speaking, do you think that the news media has been fair or unfair to Sarah Palin?
<pre> Fair Unfair No opinion
11/23/09 13 87 1
</pre>
Huckabee is finished. He just pardoned the man who murdered four cops yesterday. He can never live that down politically, as it shows a complete and utter lack of judgment on his part. His opponents will tear him to shreds.
John might lose in the 2010 Senate primary to J. D. Hayworth.
Sarah might beat John in the Az 2012 primary for Pres.
John needs Sarah's help to win in 2010.
Agree about Huckabee. The numbers look good:) Let's hold the election today.
No, I don't expect John to run in 2012. My comment is hypothetical and fanciful.
WaPo Spin..... I would if I could, but I can't, so I won"t.
sarah 2012
What a weird survey. So essentially 20% of Republicans had no opinion on who best represented the party's values and 18% said Sarah Palin. And the closest contender to her was 7% for Mike Huckabee who just hit got hit by a clemency Mack truck today.
Wow.
Sarah wins by default at this point. Just wait 'til she really gets cooking. Those undecideds could break 2-1 for her making mincemeat out of the field.
I think I'm going to write to the WaPo and tell them that their accounting must have been in error. I am SHOCKED, SHOCKED that David Brooks was not leading the Republican herd.
I would rate the 46% who say Sarah has had a good effect on the party as very favorables, the 32% as possible supporters or somewhat favorable to her now and the 20% as the unfavorables.
As to the other numbers there is a high number "no opinion" which tell me many people are still laying in the weeds waiting to commit or it's just too early to think about the subject now.
What the poll also tells me is that Romney is that PPP poll that consistently for the last few months has had Romney's F among Republicans at <55 for the last 5 months (actually 48/19 in November) may be accurate.
Good analysis, Techno.
Techno, what if Huck and Romney decide not to run? Does that mean the establishment gets behind someone like Thume or Huntsman or Daniels? Is there a dark horse lurking? Because honestly, it does not look good for Huck or Mitt at this point. Mitt will probably run, but if he's looking at these polls, he's gotta be a bit concerned. The voters in the GOP are not latching onto him as the anti-Obama at this point.
Holy Moses!!
Best poll evah for Sarah, at least since Sep last year. Given Huck is probably out, Romney can't win the nomination, Sarah should be the clear favourite even at this early stage. Didn't take long?
Of course, that is not a good thing necessarily, but I believe that her support in the GOP is pretty solid and unshakable, because once people start liking her, they are hooked.
Indies however, will always swing over time, but lets see how they go over the next few weeks as well.
Be ready for a new wave of PDS! Both democrats and republicans.
For that update #2, is that poll including democrats?
Gang,
The best part about this poll is that it includes GOP-leaning indies, a group that everyone claims that Palin struggles with.
Also, the sample included far too many GOP-leaning indies: they made up 40% of the sample and yet, Palin has a big lead (even New Hampshire's GOP primary did not see 40% indies).
More good news: Republicans and Republican-leaning indies made up almost 62% of the total adults polled.
New shirt idea!
"Conservatives 4 Palin" on the front
"We were 4 Palin, before it was cool! on the back
Kristoffer at race42012.com today made a statement that he thought it was 90% sure now that Palin or Romney would be the nominee due to their ability to raise a lot of money.
I said I agreed with him with the proviso if a dark horse were to lurk he/she would have to get in soon to get his/her ducks in a row.
Pawlenty appears to be a candidate for a dark horse but I still see it as Palin vs. ? in the end.
And that doesn't even include the pissed-off Hillary supporters :)
Will it be available with a matching depends for liberals?
All adults.
24% definitely re-elect
41% definitely not vote for him
31% consider voting for him
Good news for Huck, who needs it.
3000 in Midland. They ran out of Huck's book.
Sarah, schedule a full day there for a signing and SARAHPAC fundraiser in 2010. Be sure they have 25,000 copies of Rogue on hand. Actually, bring in a full truckload.
http://www.mywesttexas.com/articles/2009/11/29/news/top_stories/huckabee_book_tour.txt
My 2 cents on the shirt idea:
"Conservatives 4Palin since 8/29/2008" on front
"You betcha!" on back :-)
And Sarah, be ready for Tempe and Roswell. They will be ready for you!
That sample looks goofy. And it is a week old.
I don't buy it.
Also, not the word "angry" in #2. Are Democrats asked if they are "angry"?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_113009.html?hpid=topnewsNo
With Huckabee effectively gone, Sarah Palin can concentrate all of your efforts on Romney, who I believe will run. However, Romeny is a weak candidate with little charisma, no definable message, and scant grassroots support. Sure, he has a lot of money, but that didn't help him last time. The Republican electorate is not dumb. They will check the records of the candidates and chose a true conservative over a flip-flopper. Sarah Palin will a far more tenacious opponent than anyone good old Mitt faced 2008 campaign.
I agree. He is finished.
I recall that he got torn up by Fred Thompson in the debates in '08.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbWZwQ06ZwY
lol @ the question showing Sarah beating Mccain
OT----
Huckabee!?
I dont know about everyone here but I am just now hearing about his history of pardons etc for the first time....just tryin to figure out how he has survived this long without his record keeping him down in the primaries in 08.
Should be an interesting week.
Huck is toast after the crap hits the fan tomorrow...Huck.. your Lib ideas...just came back to bite you in the Arse...and my prayers go out to the families of the 4 fallen officers because of your bad judgement!
Sarah is going to eat his lunch. Anybody think her book launch in Michigan, the Romney ancestrial homestead, wasn't a "throwing down the gauntlet" kind of move? Plus, I think Sarah just really really digs Michigan and thinks if she could turn that one state red it would be sweet revenge against the Dems who have destroyed the economic prosperity of Michigan over decades of mismanagement.
not = note
It was mentioned, but Huck became a token candidate fast.
I know about Democratic mismanagement. I live in the state of Michigan. It was once a good place to live until Granholm took over. That's why I always scratch my head when people say Palin was a bad Governor. Really? Look at Alaska and compare it to Michigan. I would love to have Alaska's unemployment figures. Yet, the Democrats continue to laud Granholm as some sort of genius. If Governor Palin can pull this state into the Red once again, I would be eternally indebted to her.
I also know that people of Michigan love Sarah Palin. I was there in Grand Rapids. I saw the support she got. It was amazing. She can win this state if she tries to.
On a sidenote though, I think Sarah Palin would love the U.P. It is practically a little Alaska up there, full of natural beauty and splendor.
Toast is edible.
My shirt will say...
"My Pitchfork is Sharp and I am NOT Affraid to Use It!"
Big conservative spender Huckabee political ambitions for 2012 are over!. Sarah Pac needs to buy Huck Pac and revamp that website. The Sarah Pac website is horrible and not user friendly or interactive. PAlin should not invest all her eggs in Facebook. SHe needs her own website so she can accummulate as many email addresses as possible to make Sarah Pac even more dominant and profitable.
Among Republican women and independent women who lean Republican:
Palin 23%
Romney 8%
Huckabee 6%
McCain 6%
Here's the link:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2009/11/30/GR2009113000509.html?hpid=topnews
I agree, she needs a "real" web presence. All in do time I suppose, speaking of web sights, does anyone have any more info on this sight?
http://roguenation.us/
Via a poll conducted by '60 minutes and Vanity Fair Magazine (855 adults from Nov 6-8) here is who Americans consider the nation's most influential CONSERVATIVE voice:
1) Rush Limbaugh 26%
2) Glenn Beck 11%
3) VP Dick Cheney 10%
4) Sarah Palin 10%
NB: As the first 3 are not running for office in 2012, I would say that puts Sarah is good shape among conservatives.
Having said that I think it would be prudent for 'ordinary barbarians' to give Rush his dues. Some of you still think of Rush as just as 'entertainer'. He may be 'entertaining' but he is philosophically brilliant and cogent as hell. For Sarah's sake I'm glad Rush eschews public office. Otherwise he would be a formidable debater.
In my book it was always cool to be for Sarah Palin.
Don't forget to add that other nut case Frum.
The poll is by 60 minutes and vanity fair. Both liberal nut jobs. They want Limbaugh and Beck to be out front and center so they can call them the nutty face of the republican party and a bunch of other names.
Bottom line: again the top 3 are not running for office. Critics can vilify them all they want but when it comes down to it Sarah Palin is the only one likely to be running in 2012. By the way did you catch the info that Tommy provided in the header that in terms of representing the party's core values that 48% of Limbaugh listeners and 35% of Beck's viewers cite Sarah Palin as the person more representative of them and 45% of Limbaugh listenders would vote for her in the state's primary or caucus and 1/3 who tune in to Beck's radio or TV programs.
Jean, you cannot discount this enthusiasm among Limbaugh's listeners and Beck's viewers and listeners for Sarah, but 'the Limbaugh factor' whether you want to acknowledge it or not is huge-by conservative estimate he has 22m listeners at any one time and that may now be up to as high as 25m or 30m with the opposition to Obama mounting. But 45% of 22m equals almost 10m listeners. That's not a bad place to launch a campaing from.
Tommy, where did you get this info?
Doesn't gel with the WaPo Poll of "which one person best reflects the core values of the Rep Party" among Lean Reps.
Eg Palin 18, Rush 2.
The poll you cite is adults techno - Dems etc too. The Dems always just go with the media people especially Rush, and now Beck. They would not want to give Palin any credit for anything either.
This polls looks like it's being done to tar Sarah as an extremist. But it's good she's whistling past the competition. Is she peaking too early? i only hope her support holds up.
For Palin to be tied with a former GOP VP (Cheney) and only behind Beck by 1 point and only really trailing the most influential conservative in America is not a bad place to start from. I'll fully admit that if Rush was running for office he would look unbeatable now but he isn't, and neither is Beck. And there was a recent poll done in a head to head matchup between Cheney and Palin at 'Youpolls' where Palin gained about 75% of the vote and Cheney 25%.
I don't care if the Dems voted for Rush or Beck. These numbers speak for themselves. And then when you link them to the theme of this thread (the Wash. Post poll) Sarah comes out of both polls smelling like roses, especially that again 45% of Limbaugh listeners would vote for her in the GOP primaries or caucuses.
Just read this on Sarah's FB page by a fan:
<span><span>Jensen Weynands-Mains</span><span> </span></span><span>Hey Sarah... I just looked at the Guiness Book of World Records for 2010... you set a record for the most searched person on the internet! You even topped Barack Obama! </span>
<span></span><span></span>
<span>LOL.</span>
But look at the who is voting in this poll for the Republican candidates-this cannot be emphasized enough-leaning to Republican, which includes Republicans and INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN TO VOTING REPUBLICAN.
The key word in the sentence is INDEPENDENTS. Don't forget the past narrative re: Sarah that she could not attract INDEPENDENTS to her camp because she was deemed to polarizing or divisive. That was the prevailing narrative until about ten days ago, even at C4P. This poll only confirms Fox, Rasmussen and the ABC polls all taken within the past 2 weeks. This narrative is now being torpedoed by these poll results.
You might think that these polls are being done 'to tar Sarah as an extremist' but these folks don't realize that Sarah's key problem is LEGITIMACY, and if you keep showing her #1 in the polls eventually the word will filter down that we better jump on her bandwagon, and if you know anything about raw politics not only true believers jump on board but less passionate folks that don't want to miss the boat and get left behind. And you underestimate Sarah's ability to convince the American people that she is NOT an extremist over the next year or two.
Not only is she a superstar (and a political superstar of course), she is a goldmine, for friend and foe alike.
I know it is hugh the Limbaugh factor. Rush has been working hard for Sarah. The Beck supporters were already there for Sarah. I am looking at it more the way the Lamestream media trashes the top three or should I say all four.
I don't know what's more humiliating. That twice as many Republicans think McCain represents the core values of the party than Romney(only 6%) or that Romney is basically tied with McCain in a 2012 matchup despite the fact that McCain will be multiple-cancer surviving 76 yrs old(80 at the end of his first term) and would be in a rematch against a guy who already cleaned his clock, not to mention that no republicans or conservatives really like John McCain.
Meanwhile, Palin will need a VP with strong natl security experience. Palin/McCain 2012, anyone?
The #s look good for her. Also, this a WaPo poll, the same company that owns Newsweek. i wouldn't be surprised if her numbers were actually much better and they toned them down a bit. I wouldn't put anything past them.
But the poll shows that she has strong support among "very conservative", evangelicals and other groups. As long she cultivates those groups and maintains their support, she'll be fine.
I'm waiting for their most influential liberal voice poll so we can see whre Romney ranks
One way of looking at that is the there's 31% who are in play for 2012. Obama will need close to 85 % of them. His opponent will only need to convince less than 30% of them.
And that's now. Depending how things go, his numbers could look much worse. Of course, they could also look much better. But still, not too bad for the moment.
No way would I vote (again) for a ticket with McCain anywhere on it...I also ditto the earlier comments about Granholm's effect on Michigan (We're being "blown away", alright..Like fallen leaves).
Just Dave
Palin/Rice 2012. Rubio won't be ready yet.
I endorse this! They'd make a great team that would balance domestic/foreign issues and would make the liberals go crazy too!
I honestly don't see what the attraction is to Condi Rice, though I know lots of people like her, esp. Dick Morris. We've still got all the problems we had when she left the White House, i.e., North Korea, Iran. I was not impressed. I don't get any charisma from her either. And as far as I know, she has said she does not want to run for anything and is happy at Stanford.
Um, could you edit my research paper? And tell me the proper use of "that" and "which." ;)
Glenn Beck reported this a.m. that Huckster's web site says the police shooting by the pardoned convict -- if it is the same guy Huck pardoned -- is a failure of law enforcement at all levels. Uh-huh.
No way....don't forget McCain would be just a heart beat away from being president and at his age that would not be good......(have I heard that some place before but in a different order?....don't want to hear it again.)
4 'Cuda be4
Hadn't heard of that site. It doesn't say official anywhere. Has anyone given them their email address? The bumper sticker link leads to zazzle, which also doesn't have any info.
I bookmarked the Stand Up for Our Nation link someone floated back when that info surfaced in the press. That site says "Error you do not have permission to access this site," which could indicate the site is being built but hasn't gone live yet. I trust that one since Tim Crawford said there would be an announcement.
It cracks me up that pundits say this woman is unorganized and not doing anything toward a possible run. Ha Ha! She is is doing everything in methodical order, patiently following her strategy, finish book early, book tour reintroduction to America, building a website, speaking at select places, working on retail politics, gaging the mood of the electorate on her book tour.
She'll reveal her new web presence at just the right time. Trust her.
It was also done before the book tour and national interviews. I bet Sarah moves up the line if poll were conducted now ...
Laura ingraham said Huck gave clemency more times is his term than Clinton and Clinton Predecessor combined. I think this has become a Willie Horton moment for Huck - if it is the guy he gave clemency to- soft on crime- gave clemency over Atty Gen wishes, gave no reaasons for his grant of clemency- sure fire issues if he runs in the 2012 primary
Palin /Liz Cheny
This is a backhanded poll if I have ever seen one. If Democrats were polled and asked who shares your core values, the answer would be Pres. Obama. But they would never go on to say Pres. Obama has "particular appeal to the loyal followers of, say, Keith Olbermann". It only makes sense that, follerers of Limbaugh and Beck would also like Gov. Palin. That should have been a given. Just as it makes sense that Kieth Olbermann's followers would also like Pres. Obama. But our "lamestream" media would never ask that.
One other thing this poll shows is that there's really one issue that could potentially derail her. Immigration. She cannot support amnesty or immigration reform or guest worker programs or anything like that. As long as she emphasizes border security and strong enforcement and steers clear of any legalization or paths to citizenship she'll be ok. That is the one area where she could really lose support. Hopefully she says the right things.
The other plus she'll have going for her is thay very few other Republicans or conservatives like Mitt Romney. If it comes down to her or him, they'll support her. For example, McCain, Huckabee, Giuliani, Thompson all don't really care for Romney. When no one likes you, it's difficult to catch on. Endorsements from any one of those could be huge.
And he'll only build on his flip-flop reputation, In 2008 he was the conservative alternative to McCain and Giuliani and in 2012 he'd be the moderate alternative to Palin.
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