DailyKos/Research 2000 Poll: Palin Leads 2012 GOP Primary Race (Update: "Analysis")
QUESTION: If the 2012 Primary for President were held today, which of the following would you vote for?
Palin 16%
Romney 11%
Cheney 10%
Gingrich 7%
Huckabee 7%
Pawlenty 3%
Paul 2%
Thune 2%
Undecided 42%
The Daily Kos Republican Poll was conducted by Research 2000 from January 20 through January 31, 2010. A total of 2003 self identified Republicans were interviewed by telephone.
Update: Markos is already spinning his poll but here are my takeaways:
1) Governor Palin is winning Republicans in every age group and geographic region except for the Northeast.
2) Self-identified Republicans remain very culturally conservative.
3) Governor Palin seems to have passed the qualifications test with self-identified Republicans. 86% of Republicans told the Research 2000 pollster that she was either more qualified or weren't sure whether she was more qualified to be President than the current President. Keep in mind that the key word here is more. Obama is qualified just because he currently holds the position. That 86% of Republicans believe that she is more qualified or couldn't say whether she was more qualified is good news for her. I wouldn't be worried about the 14% of Republicans who do not believe she is more qualified to be President than Obama because Obama's status as President would likely lead most people to conclude that he is more qualified to hold the position than anyone else. That nearly the entire the Party disagrees with this assessment is good news for Palin. The next step is to demonstrate to Republicans that she can defeat the incumbent in 2012.
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85 comments:
http://www.mediaite.com/online/unauthorized-magazine-reveals-sarah-palin-child-huntress-of-alaska/2/
Undecided is a dream candidate!
It will never disappoint a voter in any way.
Panchita,
Check yesterday's open thread....it's already up. Thanks:)
Cheney 3rd?? Trust nothing from these swine. I think it's meant to motivate the kook fringe to greater heights of wingnutness. Always good to see her name 1st though!
Wha do you think Tommy Report? Techno?
Interesting....I don't think that Cheney will even run. Do you all think those supporters would go towards Sarah?
Undecided v. Obama 2012!
Who would win?
Agreed. Cheney won't run. Period.
Cheney is taking Palin Votes!! ><
Cheney is the top Neo conservative so he is likely geting those votes, but he won't run.
That is the dumbest poll I have ever seen. Sure the Sarah is winning looks good but look at the follow-on questions. WHat do 98% of those questions have to do with the fact Obama has Unemployment at over 17% realistically.
Spooky how much Piper favors her mom.
The intent was to make us look extreme.
But it appears as if the 2012 question was asked first. So there was not any bias created from those questions.
LEt me calarify and put this in simple terms. When Obama is not interorgating a terroists to find out the details of the other terroists planning on who is going to attack the US or when his energy policy is pushing down the value of the dollar and is causing the price of fuel to go up, who cares whether Genesis is taught in school or not? In fact we need to get rid of Obama's School social engineering programs to begin with and start teaching our children old fashion reading, writing and arithmetics.
This is a very interesting poll, if true. I know most of you here don't frequent DailyKos but it's worth it to click the link and go through all of the cross tabs for many of the questions. The ONLY place Sarah trails is with Romney in the Northeast and only by two points.
Those are my thoughts Tommy. Nothing motivates the maniac fringe more than Sarah and Cheney. This could have been done as a way to keep them on board with O. I'm surprised they didn't throw in McCarthy and Haliburton.
Tommy, so how does this poll compare analysis wise to the PPP(D) poll? Seems to me this one is much more favorable to Palin, and to me anyway, Research 2000/Kos is even further left than PPP(D). Or are as you said just trying to make us look extreme? Either way, it's a pretty encouraging poll.
It is (lol)...that doesn't mean I trust her though!
Got a Whistle Pig?
couldn't resist reposting them.
Speaking of the Marmot, you all remember our friend, Upinak. I emailed her to wish her a happy marmot day, and I asked her what it meant if a marmot saw its shadow. She said it just meant it was stuck in a trap. ha.:)
I went to the main Kos page and here is what kos has to say:
<span>
<p>
</p><p>As I've mentioned before, I'm putting the finishing touches on my new book,American Taliban, which catalogues the ways in which modern-day conservatives share the same agenda as radical Jihadists in the Islamic world. But I found myself making certain claims about Republicans that I didn't know if they could be backed up. So I thought, "why don't we ask them directly?" And so, this massive poll, by non-partisan independent pollster Research 2000 of over 2,000 self-identified Republicans, was born.
</p><p>The results are nothing short of startling.
</p><p>....
</p><p>Ultimately, these results explain why it is impossible for elected Republicans to work with Democrats to improve our country. Their base are conspiracy mongers who don't believe Obama was born in the United States, that he is the second coming of Lenin, and that he is racist against white people. They already want to impeach him despite the glaringly obvious lack of high crimes or misdemeanors. If any Republican strays and decides to do the right thing and try to work in a bipartisan fashion, they suffer primaries and attacks. Even the Maine twins have quit cooperating out of fear of their homegrown teabaggers.
</p><p>Given what their base demands, and this poll illustrates them perfectly, it's no wonder the GOP is the party of no.
</p></span>
It's a flawed poll, not that much different than the one the PPP (D), trying to make it look like she was the birthers favorite candidate, no I don't go to Kos, just like I don't swim in an open sewer
Tommy. I agree and the first few questions were OK but after that they were stupid. I am not discounting the results (which are good for Sarah) but the too heavy on Social Issues piece of the poll.
I was never in favor of "teaching" the Bible in public schools. Can you imagine how it would be taught? Alinski's version of the New Testament by some bored, barely literate NEA type.
This should make the Left tingly, since they never miss a chance to tell us, they would LOVE Governor Palin to be the GOP candidate in 2012.
What do you think, Mr. President?
That's a nasty cut, over your eye there, sir. And I've never seen a bump on top of the head, like that, except on Tom and Jerry cartoons.
Hey, nice Whistle Pig! Why do you have a.........run? Why.....would we do that?...... Follow the Whistle Pig, if I want to live?......
Question asked, watching the President follow a Whistle Pig to safe hiding, question answered.
Rush is talking up Sarah's Facebook. Apparently, she got Rahm to apologize!
Rush just mentioned Sarah's FB post about Rahm
Rahm apologized to the head of the special olympics today Rush just said. Rush then said "this was spearheaded by Sarah Palin"
Rush is now talking about Sarah's Facebook and Rahmn's apology....Sarah wins.
Nancy, you have me laughing out loud! I never do that. I'm one of those people who shakes quietly when I laugh; it keeps me out of trouble.
Marmots and the President. Ha! Oh my.
Here are my comments on the poll that I posted on the Open thread:
1) This is the 2nd straight poll that has shown Sarah in the lead (Newsmax/Zogby last week was the first)
2) The high undecided figure (42%) could be a product of how Kos posed the question. the Newsmax/Zogby poll only showed 15.6% were undecided.
3) As Dick Cheney is not running in 2012 (health challenges) I do believe the majority of his vote will eventually go to Palin because both are strongest in the south, but not all of it. Romney will get a huge chunk as well because simply he is the establishment candidate and Cheney is seen by many as part of the establishment.
4) Palin is the strongest in the South; what is surprising to me is Huckabee's numbers in the South: only 8% would vote for him. And Romney at 9% is even beating Huck in his perceived stronghold. This is defintely not good news for Huck. And folks PPP has made a big deal to say the clemency issue has not hurt Huck; these numbers appear to belie that assertion.
5) Of 2003 GOP respondents only just over 60 of them claim Pawlenty as their standardbearer. Tim, with these figures if you decide to run for POTUS you either have some different polling numbers or you have a death wish.
6) Like Cheney, Gingrich is less likely to run; even if he does this poll shows him well back in the second tier, as other polls have shown him for several months.
7) As for Romney he is entrenched in second spot with apparently no legitimate contenders yet appearing to dislodge him from his perch, especially with non-centenders Cheney and Gingrich the next in line.
8) As for Palin, this poll further legitimizes her frontrunner status and her ability to compete for the nomination and provides the reason why there has been a resurgence of anti-Palin troll activity on the blogs recently. For those who may say Sarah is peaking too soon, let me remind you of who is in this year's Super Bowl, the two teams that were the fastest out of the gate. This poll also confirms that Palin has been successful in resurrecting herself in the minds of the grassroots (Tommy is right; if only 14% are certain that Palin is not more qualified than Obama that is a major turnaround) and that her pathway to the nomination, if she should seek it, is not as formidable as she might have thought 6 months ago when she resigned from office.
Do they still want to ignore these Cudagrams?? Who else could get that little ballerina thug to apologize?
The Thumpin'.
our "friends" at redstate have yet to mention Sarah's rahmbo bashing. in related news they are hosting a "bloggers lounge" at CPAC. anyone from C4P invited?/s
I like the way Rush says her name. It's like-"And Sarah (pause for effect) Palin (pause for effect)...", etc. Way to go Rush.
Megan Kelly on her new show America Live is going to do a segment on the Governors FB - in 3 minutes
Unless she really blows something she will only get stronger- the TPC speech I think will be a huge boost because it'll be well prepared, lots of stuff to talk about, and we should be able to watch live- I can't wait!
Hey techno, there were some polls late last year showing Huck with a surprising lead. Do you recall who did that polling? This poll places him more where you would expect--mid pack.
Huck's fade into oblivion is surprising. He's been a "frontrunner" for some time according to most polls. What happened? (if anything).
Go Megan!!
Obama is not the second coming of Lenin, but the second coming of Alinsky.
Nancy,
I have learned not to drink anything while at the computer anymore...thank-you very much.
I've had to wipe, diet pepsi, coffee, ice tea and water off my screen too many times. Man....I think there's a water stain.
Keep up the good work! 8^0
Well, this is good news, Palin's hard work is paying off. But the GOP insiders are nervous about her, and sooner or later there will be a Stop Palin push if they think she is gaining too much traction. Watch for Palin concern trolls to be more visible on the usual right of center blogs, and be prepared to debunk bogus cr*p they post.
"bloggers lounge," with goody bags courtesy of Federal Express?
Can we start caling her Madam President now???? **she says with a whine**.
Then Kos looked in the mirror and got real.....Ultimately, these results explain why it is impossible for elected Democrats to work with Republicans to improve our country. Their base are conspiracy mongers who believe Bush was behind the 911 attacks, that he is the second coming of Hitler, and he is racist against people of color. They always wanted to impeach him despite glaring obvious lack of high crimes or misdemeanors. If any Democrat like say Joe Lieberman. decides to stray in an attempt to do the right thing and try to work in a bipartisan fashion, they suffer primaries and attacks. Even Jim Webb, and Evan Bayh have quit cooperating out of fear of their homegrown moonbats.
They were the PPP polls; PPP since April 2009 (last 10 months) has touted Huck as the GOP frontrunner based on his head to head matchup against Obama. In the January poll PPP even had Huck 1 point ahead of the Messiah. And to boot PPP has claimed that Huck was not hurt at all by the clemency issue where the 4 police officers in Washington state were slain by an ex-convict that Huck had put on the road for early parole.
Chris Cillizza of WAPO several months ago asserted that the Beltway crowd was not buying into PPP's assessment of Huck's frontrunner status and further proof that the smart people weren't buying into it was how Huck has been doing on Intrade in the last few months, being mired in single digits far behind Palin and Romney.
This guy is defending Rahm:
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/john-farrell/2010/02/02/sarah-palin-embraces-retarded-political-correctness.html
Unbelievable!
"Mrs" President (Beehive doesn't like Madam).
Sure. I have for a while now--especially when with libs.
I don't know james. They have got to realize that Sarah aint goin anywhere and is here to stay. They have to start supporting her some time.
At some point....I would think with the Iowa caucaus results...they will finally realize that Sarah is the people's choice.
Once they succume to that realization they'll start supporting her.
How was it?...When can we see it??
Just kidding Sheya!
Quite honestly I did not think the Facebook post on Rahm was one of her best. The posts on the Monday before the SOTU and her post after the SOTU were far superior and deserved much more spotlight than they were given by the MSM at the time, than this one.
But this one of Rahm perhaps had more sizzle in that she was attacking a person and it is much easier for the MSM to generate controversy over a person (a fight between Palin vs Emmanuel) than it is to explain how Palin has gained the upper hand on Obama in the arena of political discussion and ideas.
It has already begun.
US News LOL, what do you expect?
This was more of an individual call out. She wanted Rahm to step outside. What he said spoke for itself--and the effect of her calling him out speaks for itself!
A big thumbs down for the haters.
I have always said once Rush gets in your corner, you're half way home. People on the Left and the GOP establishment are perplexed why he has so much power. Simply, because he refuses to yield to conventional wisdom and will never back down on what he believes. Again do not forget Rush's speech at CPAC on Feb 28th; without that there may not have been as much impetus to get the TP movement launched. And Rush also definitely gave Palin a boost a well.
Rush does not want to endorse Palin or he might lose some of his audience. After all he is a capitalist. But he does the next best thing by bringing her to the forefront of his program frequently and by doing so, his 22m listeners know what he is saying to them and can read between the lines.
Does not this guy know, that she is IRRELEVANT, and should thusly, be ignored? Forthwith!
Update on the Olympic Committee's discussion on adding Troll Trashing to the Olympics.....now the discussion centers on whether the committee should except the recommendation of most of it's members that the award for this category should be changed to 1st Place.....Gold Nightstick....2nd Place.....Silver Nightstick.....3rd Place.......Bronze Nightstick......and on whether injuries occurred will be covered under Obamacare......further updates as new developments occur.......some members are now mulling over the idea that the 1st Place Award should be represented by a Gold Broken Nightstick.......
Perhaps it took awhile for the clemency issue to sink in or perhaps it was that Huck only raised $800,000 in 2009. Or it could be that Palin has been eating away at Huck's evangelical base since the Going Rogue tour began. Or a combination of all three.
This is quite delicious.
Was Palin the only one who knew (besides people on this site) that the Obama/Republican Retreat was a bounce for Obama? The GOP establishment gave Obama a free camera and face time and they thought they would have the upper hand? Huh? They didn't invite Palin and that was their loss to deflect the attention away from Obama.
What does Palin do next to knock that more positive story off the radar? She puts out a Facebook post last night taking on Rahm and his foul mouth. She knew the MSM would foam at the mouth that Palin is trying to once again "stir the pot."
And what do we have today? Her Facebook is making the rounds on the internet and TV and she is once again a focus of a new story.
For those of you who say this wasn't one of her best Facebook postings, I respectfully disagree. Obama has been hovering in the mid-high 40's in approval for weeks, and then got a bounce because of that "retreat" last Friday. Who was the first to react? Palin. By putting that Facebook out last night, she blunted any more bounce and put Obama and the Adminstration back on the defense today.
With that Facebook, she once again was targeting the Independents who sit on the fence. She created doubt in voters minds that Obama hires questionable characters in his own Administration and therefore any bounce will be blunted by more questions.
Mission Accomplished.
One should never trust anyone under 21 especially the under 10 crowd. Sneaky little rugrats. I worked as a counsellor at a summer camp a few years ago. Always keep an eye on 'em ;)
From a strategic point of view I can see your argument, but purely from a persuasive point of view I thought especially her post-SOTU completely gutted the Messiah and his agenda. I would put that next to the "death panels" post. It will be hard for Palin to top her DP post ever. That post was equivalent to the Declaration of Independence imho if Obamacare finally sees Davy Jones' locker.
Pawlenty will declare to get some name recognition and to swing a cabinet spot so he is in the top tier for 2020.
Techno, I agree.
That post SOTU post was her best yet. She was serious, no betcha's, knocked apart each of Obama's points expertly and (most important to me), sounded like a gosh darn campaign speech....made me pisture myself at a "Palin for President" rally!!! :^))
Pathetic...everyone knows that using the word "retard" is meant to be demeaning. It was when the schoolyard bully used it in seventh grade and it is when one of President's advisors uses it.
Besides that...how on earth does one respond to that in a meeting? If you are gathered in a conference room discussing important issues, and one of the most important people in attendance calls everyone present, "!%#@ing retards"...how can anything constructive come out of it?
No wonder everything coming out of the White House is garbage.
pisture=picture...sorry =(
Rule 12: Pick the target. Freeze it. Personalize it. Polarize it.
Rahm was a useful target. She uses their weapons against them.
She is a fighter. She is at war with the culture of death.
<span>Techno, I agree.
That post SOTU post was her best yet. She was serious, no betcha's, knocked apart each of Obama's points expertly and (most important to me), sounded like a gosh darn campaign speech....made me picture myself at a "Palin for President" rally!!! :^))</span>
Folks this poll is only going to bring out the trolls in droves and those who will attack Sarah on the Rand Paul endorsement.
As I wrote of at HA it is ridiculous in 2010 to tar with the same brush with the same accusations as you would level on the father. Just because Rand is a son of Ron does not mean is a carbon copy of his father and we should be enlighened enough at C4P and elsewhere to acknowledge that instead of indulging in Rand bashing because of the 'sins' of his father.
Even if Sarah had 100 percent support in a poll the Liberal Media would find some way to spin it and say something negative.
Tech:
Sometimes the most persuasive are not what is needed in order to take control of the message. I would say all of Palin's Facebooks are direct hits (I agree, the one prior to the SOTU was one of her best), because it was focused in on policy issues.
I guess this one hit home for me in a different way because the timing was once again perfect and she sensed from how the LSM was messaging the Obama retreat story that she needed to rattle the cage in order to gain some traction. How does she do that? She takes on the Obama Administration directly.
She has already stated in previous Facebook posts that Rahm's brother was a shady character and part of the 'death panel' discussion. She took it a step further this time and tied Rahm into the same character flaws as his brother.
I honestly believe not every Facebook post is to show her leadership credentials. Sometimes they are to just present doubt in voters minds and make the Independents stop and think again who is leading the country and who does he surround himself with....is this someone you can TRUST? Would you be anxious again to vote him in for a second term?
Even if Sarah had 99% in a poll the liberal media would spin it as a negative.
You guys, I went over to the US News and World Report article about Sarah's response to Rahm's pigmouth.
It was amazing and appallng to me that that "author" truely believed what he wrote and that the commenters there were mainly agreeing with him.
I had to respond..not only to him but mainly to some of the "commenters" there.
I don't really like to point out what I post...not really that good at it...but this is it......it just made me feel better. 8^))
..."Rahm used the word in the same way that people use the word "idiot" or "idiotic"..."
Then why didn't he use that "word". The word(s) in question was used by a high ranking political official in front of a major newspaper, and the correct quote was "f'ing retarded"...nice.
I can't believe that you think this was okay.
Using your theory (or excuse), than F**k should be able to substituted for dang, shoot or darn, whenvever the feeling should arise. Our speech is one of many things, that tells people what kind of person we are.
Obviously, with Rahm hanging around Chicago thugs all of his adult life, this kind of speech just rolls off his tounge..he's infamous for it. To me, it shows me what kind of person he truely is.
As a wise person once told me....."The words you use to describe others also shape their perception of you."
Sarah Palin was correct in pointing this out. She found it offensive, as did I.
Sarah's takedown of Rahm and the KOS presidential poll links up on Drudge....about time.
ha ha
I know Sarah will support individual candidates but after the little NRSC/NRCC games they played with her last year I think Sarah is finished with them for a while, maybe even a long time. The whole thing was clearly an attempt to make her look totally incompetent. Wouldn't surprise me if she doesn't totally distance herself from them.
I think it had something to do with the highly influential "conservative" David Brooks telling Meet the Press that talk show hosts are a joke ... of course, he was referring to Sarah Palin and her non-existant talk show, but he inadvertantly took out Huck.
Poor Huck. No Luck.
Kjan,
I don't see the link to the poll.
The endorsement of McCain was a step in that direction but I agree with you that her main focus of attention is to firm up her base (the not look over your shoulder approach to politics) and then to expand it to libertarians and independent conservatives (tea party types) and of course evangelicals. As to the latter if somehow Huckabee's evangelical support began to soften, Sarah would be in an ideal position now to pick up the vast majority of these folks. Romney is praying every night that this does not occur any time soon because it might mean disaster for his own presidential ambitions.
Haha Thanks Mark.
If you click on Drudge's sentence it takes you to Taegan Goddard's Political Wire which links both to Sarah's Facebook and the KOS Poll.
FR is currently conducting a GOP presidential poll on a thread:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2442850/posts?page=1
It seems like Sarah is the only one that is talking on the issues. Where is the GOP leadership........Buckup or stay in the truck....or should we say...shut up and stay in the truck?
First, it's always good to see any poll with good results like this one.
2nd, I highly doubt Cheney and Gingrich will run. Cheney definitely not. Gingrich almost definitely not. Both will be 70 yrs old. Both are representative of the past and not the exactly the best choice for a party going forward. Gingrich didnt run in 2008 when it was way more open and he was 4 yrs younger. Again running a 70 yr old guy against a 20 yrs younger charismatic guy like Obama is not a good idea. See HW Bush v Clinton, Dole v Clinton, McCain v Obama. It just doesn't work. An old guy can work with Reagan but he ran against guys like Carter and Mondale who were utter stiffs. So forget about Cheney and Gingrich.
3rd, national polls don't really matter, as we saw in 2008. Obama was 25-30 pts behind Hillary for all of 2007. All that mattered was IA. McCain was in single digits and the low teens for most of 2007. Didn't matter. Even Kerry in 2004 was doing very badly formost of 2003. All that really matters for her is IA and SC, specifically IA. IA is 90% conservative, 45% very conservative, 60% evangelical, 70% small town and rural, heavily prolife and progun. SC is similar, but slightly less so. She wins IA and she's the nominee. It's pretty simple.
But again, there's still a long way to go. That said, 2 yrs from now we'll know who the nominee is and it was 2 yrs ago today that the Super Tuesday primaries happened. Time does move fast.
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