Surely Marist will Poll Obama (D) v. H. Clinton (I) v. Palin (R) Next?
The Marist Poll decided to poll what it calls a "VERY hypothetical matchup" between Barack Obama (D), Michael Bloomberg (I), and Sarah Palin (R). Marist found that Bloomberg helps Obama dramatically as he fails to take any of Obama' vote from registered voters who identify with the Democrat Party but is able to take away a good chunk of Palin's vote.
I think it's a fair assumption that if you took away Bloomberg as an option, that his vote goes to Palin by a 4-to-1 margin (just look at the crosstabs to the poll). Of course we won't know for sure considering that Marist didn't do the logical thing and poll an individual matchup between Obama and Palin. In any event, even with a third-party candidate taking a good portion of her vote, Palin has cut down the 23-point lead that Obama held over her according to an August Marist poll.
Marist can probably come out looking pretty good if it did the fair and balanced thing by subsequently polling a "VERY hypothetical" contest that substituted another famous New York politician into the third-party role. Marist, how about a poll between Barack Obama, Sarah Palin, and Hillary Clinton as the third-party candidate?
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31 comments:
<span>heads up for more lib shennanigans: (see #35 and #36 on this thread at AoS)</span>
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Did you read about last weekend's "tea party" convention in Nashville? Attendees paid $549 apiece for a weekend of activism and education capped by the main attraction: a speech by everybody's favorite half-term former Alaska governor, Sarah Palin. For her efforts, Palin received more than $100,000 in speaking fees - and the adoration of legions of fans.
In honor of the tea party convention, we came up with a way for you to tell us what you think she's saying. Just click on the link below, fill in the speech bubble, then submit it to us. We'll post the best creations at dscc.org.
Be creative! Sarah Palin wants to be the voice of the tea party movement. Let's help.
-DSCC
http://www.dscc.org/whiteboard
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<span></span><span><span> – </span>Edit</span><span><span> – </span>Moderate</span>
Written on Obama's hand: Put clothes on
<span><span>heads up for more lib shennanigans: (see #35 and #36 on this thread at AoS)</span>
<span>
Did you read about last weekend's "tea party" convention in Nashville? Attendees paid $549 apiece for a weekend of activism and education capped by the main attraction: a speech by everybody's favorite half-term former Alaska governor, Sarah Palin. For her efforts, Palin received more than $100,000 in speaking fees - and the adoration of legions of fans.
In honor of the tea party convention, we came up with a way for you to tell us what you think she's saying. Just click on the link below, fill in the speech bubble, then submit it to us. We'll post the best creations at dscc.org.
Be creative! Sarah Palin wants to be the voice of the tea party movement. Let's help.
-DSCC
http://www.dscc.org/whiteboard </span></span>
The DSCC is the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, so it isn't just a bunch of HuffPo/Kos/DU nutters putting this together.
Just another example of how polsters try to shape public opinion rather than report it.
I believe there was another poll taken with head to head. Judging by these results it would not surprise me if Sarah was within at least 4 maybe closer. Because of that Marist knew they couldn't let that poll come out and legitimate Sarah so they pulled out this poll which makes it look like Obama has a decent lead.
One huge problem with the results was Bloomberg with 13% in the South. 3% maybe 13% not even a pipedream for Bloomberg in the South.
Bad news for Obama whether they wanted it or not but only 44% for him as a sitting President. That puts him in the sewrious vulnerable stage.
I think a hidden thing with Sarah is she will get people that have never voted or have not voted in a while to vote for her. Sure a Noonan, Frum etc may stay at home but for everyone of them there will be 3 that have not voted come out. This is huge folks.
Also notice how close Sarah is to Obama with Indies. Once again not good for him. And to think she has not even started campaigning on her platform.
I live in NYC and I can't imagine why they would even put Mike Bloomberg on any kind of poll. He's made it quite clear he has no intention of running for President. Ever.
We should all go post our "opinions". When they realized they have been found out, they will have egg on their faces.
I do think that we should all prepare for a 2012 Clinton/Palin match up. That will be a tough decision for many. Sarah has garnered a lot of support form former Hillary supporters. I hope the Palin camp is preparing for this possibility because the Clinton machine is a tough one to beat when you can't play the race card.
If you all go to DailyKos' site to check out a recent post, they're citing the fact that O'Reilly/Rove tried to discredit a poll as insignificant but then Chris Wallace used some of the data. What the Kos fails to mention is that Palin doesn't care about "fickle" polls.
I read that this Munger guy likes kids and he's a child molester.
It's far too soon for polls. In the spring of 2011, when 'exploratory committees' would traditionally be formed is the first time a poll will actually start to mean anything.
The genius of Governor Palin's resignation will be obvious by then as it will have given her the entire 2010 cycle to be active in the lower 48 promoting candidates, regularly commenting on Fox news (and elsewhere, I'm sure), interacting with foreign and domestic policy advisors to broaden her focus from Alaska (as she admitted, she had primarily focused on Alaska's needs -- as was entirely appropriate). She will also be able to polish her interview style -- I don't want to see her become a typcial 'talking head', but she will improve with experience. If she had stayed in office, she'd be stuck responding to weekly ethics charges until the spring of 2011, she would on the bench in 2010 -- we need the barracuda in this battle.
Me too! I think it's a shout out to the Dems to begin thinking of ways to beat her. Since she put the 3rd Party stuff to bed, they're trying to create their own hypothetical 3rd Party.
The most interesting thing to me about these polls is that they're almost conceding that Sarah's going to be the Repub nominee!
The standard procedure for comment on polls that don't go your way: they don't mean anything; it's too early or that voters are thinking about politics now and for the frontrunner to give a standard answer like Palin did.
Both are disingenuous to a certain extent. The former never wants to admit vulnerability or failure and the latter never wants to gloat or pat himself/herself on the back.
Ask yourself the question, "If polls didn't matter, why are there so many of them and why are they commissioned now in the first place, especially among political parties or groups interested in politics?"
That is a rather odd poll to run. I actually would be interested to see an Obama/Palin/Clinton poll. Hmm, wouldn't that be an interesting race. I think Hillary might siphon off enough of Obama's support to give Sarah a victory, but there are probably some (but not many) Sarah supporters who would go for Hillary.
I don't know whether this has been posted already, but from the London Times Online--
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article7018587.ece
I didn't have time to read the article, but I like the headine!
Not only that he barely won last time for Mayor of NYC. If Bloomberg struggles there he is in big trouble elsewhere. His raise taxes, no smaoking no fat government control of every phase of your life is like a lead ballon. He would be lucky Nationwide to garner 3% of the vote.
I'm thinking that perhaps a more realistic poll at this point would be a Clinton vs. Palin poll. In NYC I'm surrounded by Obama supporters(what's left of them anyway) and you wouldn't believe how many of them truely believe that Obama isn't even going to run.
I'm following Sarah's lead. Damn any kind of poll, to the future with optimism, if she runs we either win or lose but I'll give it my all just like Sarah.
I can't figure out why they're using the KOS poll instead of Zogby--especially Fox.
I disagree with you and the reason I give is the focus of your post: Palin's resignation.
If Palin were to lag in the polls too long (eg.remain in 3rd spot to Romney and Huckabee till Nov 2010) that would feed right into the narrative spread by the Left and the GOP establishment that the resignation damaged her chances irreparably from competing for the presidency in 2012 or a major force in the Republican party. By becoming the frontrunner in two recent polls and now surging on Intrade Palin is able to shed this narrative early in the process and thus like many folks on the Open Thread conjectured will prompt many skeptics and fence-sitters to take a second look at Palin and re-evaluate her.
Guest, this is why polls matter, regardless when they are taken.
If anyone would put Hillary and Sarah in a poll against Obama, one of the girls wins. Can't have that headline!
I'm with you Luc. I've heard a lot of "Obama won't run" talk too. Maybe wishful thinking at this point. They're beginning to see what a disaster he is.
Boy does Rush love Sarah. He played parts of her speech and then parts of Reagan speaking (debating Bush 41).
Rush just announced that John Murtha died.
The Cuda showed Rush a lot of love yesterday. He is just reciprocating.
I think it's more than that. He never has anything but praise for her. I think he'd endorse her now if he thought it would help, but it's way too early for that. It would hurt her at this point. Never mentions any of the others.
His ego is TOOO Big not to run. Plus he owns the Dems. Sorry Hillary, Obama has turned the flank on you. HE owns the African American vote and that accounts for over 20% of the Dem bas (I mean 95% own). With that he only needs about 35% of the rest of the Dem vote to win the Nomination. Folks that is not General Election that is Dem. The media will leave you to believe Sarah has GOP in a corner but realistically Obama has Dems in a corner. Keep in mind the same ones saying Sarah has GOP in a corner are the same ones that were saying GOP was dead 8 months ago. We know how their predictions played out.
I whole heartedly agree with the last paragraph and this statement: "Sarah Palin is the most powerful Republican in the United States."
No current Republican matches her stature.
If the GOP is too stupid to realize this they don't deserve my vote. Not now. Not ever.
Cheesewhiz people go out of their way to try to discredit Sarah Palin, in doing so they only prove what a powerful force she is.
A Clinton/Palin/Obama matchup certainly would be interesting.
Despite all of the fringe issues that always get looped into the tea party movement (which they really need to get away from as a whole), I liked the convention's reiteration that all politics are local. Going forward, I know that there are going to be districts and states that just can't be won on a conservative angle because they're just too far to the left, but in those places where there is the notion of doubt, it's the local political party's duty to get out the vote for the conservative candidates! I love Sarah's strength of candidates even in primaries. I think it was also good for her to say that there's not going to be the "perfect" candidate. If we have faith in someone's end goal, we shouldn't doubt the steps that she takes along the way. There's no point in getting so mad without really looking at the candidates. She has to be thinking about this from a candidate/strategy standpoint too. Her supporters must know this and use this fact to just trust in her decisions....not like sheep, but someone that has a viewpoint.
It's not a fair article. It's a grim assessment.
I think Hillary would have a great shot at beating him in a primary. She already beat him handily in CA, NY, TX, FL, PA, OH, NJ, MI etc... And all of that was when he was way more popular and before his approval ratings had fallen to where they all now. She already beat him in NH. It depends on his #s. If he's consistently below 40% for a while and the dems take a bath in November I think she does run, and I think she wins rather easily.
Remember when there were polls that showed how polarizing a certain someone was and how radoiactive she was because she had a 41% favorable among indempendents?
Well, look at this poll and who is at 39% favorable among independents? 26% approval? And those are down from much greater highs over the past yr. I wonder when we'll start seeing all these stories about how polarizing he is?
In other news, I saw where the guy won the Ukraine election. So much for my Palin-Tymoshenko-Fernandez summit. But a woman did win in Costa Rica. Laura Chinchilla, a strong conservative economically and a social conservative(pro-life)as well. So, maybe we'll just have the Palin-Fernandez-Chinchilla summit instead.
He still polls high amongst Dems. I believe he would have to get close to 60% approval with Dems before this would even come into play.
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