On The Wave, The Palin Effect, and Implications For 2010; UPDATED: Pelosi Running For Minority Leader

Two excellent articles appear in Human Events. The first, which appeared yesterday, is by John Hayward. John’s name is not familiar to us, but we’ve been enjoying his brilliant writing and passionate support of Governor Palin for quite some time. He is, in fact, the artist formerly known as Doctor Zero. In yesterday’s piece, he offered his analysis of Tuesday’s mid-terms, including his assessment of Governor Palin’s impact on the election. He also gives a shoutout to C4P:

Sarah Palin did the GOP a lot of favors during this election. She’ll have plenty of markers to call in, if she runs for President. Conservatives4Palin put together a scorecard of candidates she endorsed, and it boasts a very impressive number of wins. She poured her strength into crucial victories, including most of the people I’ve already mentioned, plus the likes of Renee Ellmers (NC), John Boozman (AR), and Kelly Ayotte (NH). Dismissing Palin as some kind of fringe, “divisive” figure is transparently foolish. She made a difference for a bounty of good candidates, who will make a difference for America in the years ahead.

If the primary season was transformative for the Republican Party, Election Day will prove transformative for Democrats. Blue Dogs generally did not fare well … with the notable exception of Joe Manchin in West Virginia, who ran so far to the right that he should be jumping out of closets at the MSNBC haunted house next year. The new House Democrat minority is more liberal than the one which set off the Red Wave of 2010, and so is their contingent in the Senate. That does not position them well for the future. The Republicans of 2012 will have plenty to run against.

Hayward makes an excellent point here. The House minority will be smaller and even more liberal than before. I remember the dark days in 2006 when the Democrats recaptured the House. At the time a very liberal friend (a liberal arts professor, of course) bought into James Carville’s prediction that the House would stay in Democrat control for the next 40 years, at least. I disagreed with him. I noted that, with a few notable exceptions (e.g. Tom Foley, Dan Rostenkowski, etc.), the people who will be running the House under Pelosi are the same as those who ran it under Tom Foley. Why should we expect them to do anything different in 2007 than they did when they ran things prior to 1994? The smile on his face wavered and he mumbled something I can’t repeat. I thought about that conversation as he handed me that case of Guinness yesterday (we bet on who would control the House…he lost).

Anyway, this morning I heard something on MSNBC (I was bored) that would be very good news if true. The latest rumor is that Nancy Pelosi is calling allies in the House (those who survived, presumably) and attempting to determine if there is still support for her leadership in the shrunken Democrat caucus. Let’s hope there is, and that she becomes House Minority Leader. Additionally, on the Senate side, Harry Reid remains Senate Majority Leader. Obviously we would have liked to have seen Dingy Harry retired and replaced with a true constitutional conservative, but that didn’t happen. There is, however, a silver lining: if House Democrats keep Nancy Murkowski Pelosi as their leader, Republicans will once again be able to run against the Obama-Reid-Pelosi agenda in 2012. This would truly be the gift that keeps on giving. It’s difficult to imagine Democrats are that dumb, but then again…they are Democrats.

Read John’s entire piece here. In today’s Human Events, friend of C4P Jedediah Bila analyzes what she calls “The Palin Effect” in the mid-term elections.

Palin’s 71% endorsement success rate thus far—52 wins out of 73 declared races featuring Palin-endorsed candidates (eight additional races are undecided as of 1:30 p.m. on November 4)—is impressive, especially considering that she embraced a number of underdogs in traditionally blue states. Of particular importance is the fact that eighteen of the twenty candidates backed in Palin’s Take Back the 20 initiative have won their races (one race is undecided as of 1:30 p.m. on November 4). That’s a 90% success rate.

Despite that, Palin herself has said, “And, you know, sometimes it’s a double-edged sword there if my name is connected to anybody.” She’s right, but why?

The “radical” portrait that has been painted of Palin by the left-wing media lives on in many places, particularly in heavily blue states like California and Delaware. I assure you that Palin Derangement Syndrome is alive and well in Manhattan.

Some have argued that even without the “radical” epithet, the fact that Palin is a true conservative—both fiscally and socially—can be a tough sell in heavily blue states. They have opined that her endorsement of Republicans in states where many consider Arnold Schwarzenegger to be conservative, may not have been perceived well by many in those states.

Reality check: Palin’s endorsements aren’t geared toward America’s hard left. They’re meant to rally conservatives, Republicans, and Independents—be they in typically red or blue states. They won’t always yield victory, particularly in America’s deep blue regions, but you just never know. It is noteworthy that her endorsements of Susana Martinez in blue-leaning NM and Kelly Ayotte in blue-leaning NH certainly lent a hand to their successes.

Though neither Governor Palin nor President Obama were on the ballot Tuesday, the election was clearly a national referendum on two competing visions for America. Obama, as president, was the leading proponent of transforming America into a European-style socialist state with an ever expanding, intrusive, and debt-ridden government. Governor Palin, as Obama’s most prominent and energetic opponent on the national stage, was acknowledged as the leader of the opposition and argued passionately and persuasively for a return to the limited government as envisioned by our Founding Fathers and embodied in our founding documents. For all the talk of Palin’s unelectability by beltway Republicans with ulterior motives, there can be no doubt that Tuesday’s “national” election was a contest by proxy between Obama and Palin. We all know who won that contest, and it wasn’t close.

Read Jedediah’s entire piece here. Jedediah will one of the featured speakers at the C4P Meetup next weekend in Chicago.

Update: Jackpot! The rumor I mentioned above is true. My friends, our prayers have been answered:

Driven by the urgency of creating jobs & protecting #hcr, #wsr, Social Security & Medicare, I am running for Dem Leader.

Let’s hope she wins. The longer Nancy Pelosi remains as the face of Congressional Democrats, the better off we are. To paraphrase Tina Fey, I can see 2012 from my house, and it looks like we’ll have the entire Obama-Pelosi-Reid triumvirate intact for another two years to keep us motivated. Life is good.

Update II: The beltway blog Politico is, shall we say, less than enthusiastic about Pelosi’s decision:

For shell-shocked House Democrats who held on in tough districts Tuesday, a new nightmare is unfolding before their eyes: Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who acted as a drag on campaigns across the country, isn’t letting go of power.

Politico’s nightmare is our dream come true, heh! If you’re unfortunate enough to live in a Democrat district, call your representative and demand they vote Pelosi for Minority Leader. Put up yard signs. Do your part!



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