Here is what the race looks like when you average the six polls (the polls are from the Washington Post/ABC News, Quinnipiac, Reuters/Ipsos, Fox News, and the two polls released this morning from CNN and Gallup) that have been conducted after Mitt “peacetime” Romney formally announced that he was running for the presidency.
Every candidate gets a bounce after he or she gives a speech formally announcing a run for the presidency. The fact that Romney can only get to 23% after his announcement speech suggests that the hack has an incredibly low ceiling. Remember that Governor Palin has yet to give her announcement speech and these polls are being conducted at the same time Republican voters are constantly hearing that she will not run.
The chances of Romney getting to 30% in a multi-candidate field don’t seem very good in my opinion unless Governor Palin doesn’t run. Why is that? Because it is simply implausible to believe that neither Tim Pawlenty nor Jon Huntsman will eventually get into double digits. When Pawlenty and Huntsman inevitably increase their percentage of the vote, their votes will come directly from the godfather of Obamacare. On the other hand, Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann have pretty much hit their ceilings. There is no reason to believe that either Cain or Bachmann will end up with anything more than what they are getting right now when the time for voting begins.
I don’t buy the argument coming from some on our side that once the Governor enters the race, that it’ll be a two-person contest between her and Romney. It’ll likely be four-person contest between Palin, Romney, Pawlenty, and Huntsman and I think we all know who that race will favor.