CNN Poll Shows that a Higher Percentage of GOP/GOP-Leaning Indies Want Governor Palin to Run than the Percentage Who Want Perry/Giuliani to Run

According to the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, 55% of Republican and Republican-leaning independents want Governor Palin to run, compared to 54% for Rudy Giuliani and 50% for Rick Perry.  That’s a 2% increase from April when 53% of Republican and Republican-leaning independents wanted her to run according to this same pollster.

Here are the actual horserace numbers with Perry:

Romney 16%
Perry 14%
Palin 13%
Rudy 13%
Bachmann 12%
Paul 8%
Cain 6%
Gingrich 4%
Pawlenty 3%
Santorum 2%
Huntsman 1%

Here are the numbers without Perry:

Romney 17%
Palin 15%
Bachmann 15%
Rudy 14%
Paul 9%
Cain 8%
Gingrich 4%
Pawlenty 4%
Santorum 3%
Huntsman 1%
Johnson 1%

Palin’s horserace percentage is better in the ABC News/Washington Post poll primarily because it appears that they polled more GOP and GOP-leaning independents without a college degree and GOP and GOP-leaning independents making under $50K a year in that poll than the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll. If you look at the crosstabs, Palin is leading among GOP and GOP-leaning indies who do not have a college degree and GOP and GOP-leaning indies who make less than $50K a year. Her percentage of support among GOP and GOP-leaning indies with a college degree in the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll appears to be the same as the percentage she received in the ABC/Washington Post poll. So part of the difference may be that her strongest groups comprised a larger part of the sample in the ABC/Washington Post poll than in the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll. Palin leads among female GOP and GOP-leaning indies.

In any event, Bachmann polls the same in both polls at 12%. Rudy’s inclusion in this poll probably hurts Mitt “peacetime” Romney while the difference between Perry’s ABC/Washington Post poll percentage and CNN/Opinion Research Corporation percentage is pretty much the diference between Palin’s ABC/Washington Post poll percentage and CNN/Opinion Research Corporation percentage.



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