Pollinsider on Governor Palin, The Undefeated, and 2012

Our friends at Pollinsider have posted a wide-ranging Q&A type post today. Topics discussed include the wide open 2012 Republican race, the impact of Governor Palin’s decision to delay an announcement, the impact of The Undefeated on her potential campaign, and the likelihood that Mitt Romney would select Michele Bachmann as his running mate in the unlikely event  Republicans nominate him. Excerpts follow:

Q: Do you think a big field that included Palin, Bachmann, Perry, Paul, Cain would split the conservative vote and hand the nomination to Romney?

A: This is probably the biggest misconception out their today, that their are too many anti-establishment candidates up against Romney and that they will “split the vote” and hand Romney the nomination. This would certainly be the case if ALL of the more conservative/Tea Party candidate types stayed in and battled for every primary the entire campaign. But let’s be honest, most of the candidates will drop out before a majority of the voting takes place, and many probably after Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. In 2008, by Super Tuesday (when few votes had been cast) previous frontrunners Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson were already out of the race, among a handful of other 2nd rate candidates. On the Democratic side in 2008 Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, and Bill Richardson all left immediately following Iowa or New Hampshire. John Edwards was out before Super Tuesday, and only Clinton and Obama remained when 90% of the votes have yet to be determined, and both battled until the end.

[…]

Q: Why is Palin waiting so long to announce? Is it due to the statute of limitations of frivolous lawsuits expiring soon? Do you think she will even run for President?

A: There is no doubt in my mind that Palin is running for President, as I have stated from day one here. I don’t think that Palin has waited an extraordinary amount of time. In 1999, Bush didn’t officially announce he was running until mid-June of that year and McCain didn’t announce until September! Sure, both had formed “exploratory committees” but Palin has essentially done that in her own way. Even this year, Jon Huntsman and Michele Bachmann just formally announced within the past few weeks and nobody is getting uptight over Rick Perry’s declaration (or not) of candidacy. As far as debates go, know when the first time George W. Bush entered a debate in 1999? Try December. Look, there is still nearly 6 months to go until the Iowa caucuses. That is a millennium in the age of 24/hour news and politics.

[…]

Q: Do you think The Undefeated will help Palin’s presidential prospects?

A: I’ve noticed a big change in the way that the media has been covering Sarah Palin recently, most notably after the release of her e-mails from time as Governor. I think deep down, the media really believed what they were saying about Palin was true. They wanted to believe that Palin was mean, vindictive, controlling, aloof, stupid, unqualified… unpresidential. But I think as the ripped through her e-mails they noticed that they had spent all of this time destroying a good woman. They disagreed with her, sure, but nothing they said about her, implied about her, or simply wanted to be true was true. Couple this with The Undefeated. And here are the journalists, once again, learning stuff about Palin that they never knew to have existed.

[…]

Q: Do you think Romney would choose Bachmann for VP if he were to win the nomination?

A: No way in one billion trillion years would Romney pick Bachmann as his running-mate. Nobody will. Bachmann would be a major liability to Romney and she would attract more negative attention than anything. Recent stories about her clinic, her businesses and government subsidies, her total lack of experience other than voting in a way 200 other congressmen have voted, etc would haunt her for a year. Trust me, they would never let up on Bachmann. Field Day.

Romney is about as vanilla as they come. He has shown absolutely no interest in the Tea Party vote or conservatives in general.

Much more here.  Be sure to read the whole thing.

((h/t Mr. L)



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