Four Reasons Why Sarah Palin Will Win

I’ve been approached several times today by doubters who advance arguments as to why Sarah Palin cannot win the nomination, or if she secures it, why she can’t defeat Barack Obama. All of the theories I’ve had pitched in my direction today share a couple common faults, and it’s important to point them out here. The most common reason I’ve heard today is the belief that the media will destroy her. That’s silly. Is there a single Republican, never mind conservative, whom the media will not seek to destroy to defend their darling, Barack Obama? Anybody who watched the media in action after McCain’s nomination in 2008 should by now be thoroughly disabused of that shoddy notion. The Lame-Stream Media has been trying for three years running to destroy Sarah Palin, and there is no chance, having failed thus far, that they will improve results on their limited success.

The problem is that if the media narrative about a person is based on lies, in the longer run, those lies lose effectiveness as people learn the truth from other sources, and worse yet, the lies come back to haunt their purveyors because once the audience, having originally believed them, in the second instance realizes they’ve been scammed, they will thereafter no longer be inclined to believe another pronouncement given voice by that source.

The second most common flaw in the arguments I’ve been hearing and reading today is the dubious assumption that she’s an intellectual lightweight. Truthfully, there couldn’t be a more ridiculous claim upon which to base one’s criticisms, and yet this is the default argument of those who wish to suggest that Sarah Palin isn’t qualified. It’s the constant harangue of the elite media types, and it has been a failure repeatedly. They tried to paint a similar picture of Ronald Reagan, and in fact, every Republican in my memory. It’s a claim that falls on deaf ears in most quarters, because in the final analysis, it’s simply not believable given all she has already accompished. Having covered what critics have said, let me move on to my own list of reasons in opposition to these notions. I firmly believe that Sarah Palin will run, win the nomination, and ultimately the Presidency.

1. Nobody on the Republican side has the ability to raise money like Sarah Palin. Her numerous supporters are the most rigidly determined of the bunch, and yet they remain more inclined than any to eschew distortions or outright lies in criticisms of the other candidates. That natural constituency remains one of Governor Palin’s most precious assets. Her supporters are leaders unto themselves, needing no prompting or pushing to engage in the contest. Instead, they’re busily preparing for the campaign they now conclude (and have regarded for some time) as inevitable and right. One can discern a good deal about a candidate by the quality of leaders that develop and rise in their midst. In Mrs. Palin’s case, all evidence would support the notion that by her own thoughtful seeding, she’s now harvesting a superior crop. The media and their political analysts all seem to assert that she has no ground-game and no organization. To anybody who has been following her for any period of time, this is a laughable misstatement of the facts on par with the storied headline “Dewey Wins!” Outside her control or direction, Palin supporters have already formed their own grass-roots structure, and that means Governor Palin will put her campaign together in days or hours, rather than weeks or months.

2. The primary election is going to come down to an assessment by Republican primary voters as to who they believe will best represent their interests in the general election. Considering the candidates on a case-by-case basis, it’s hard to conclude that any have a better understanding of the issues at stake than Governor Palin, and it’s even more difficult to conceive of that Republican candidate who is more closely tied to the conservative base of the party. Mrs. Palin’s support in the Republican party will come from Main Street, and Anytown, USA, where the values they share meet the reality of the Obama disaster. This natural affinity for localized concerns magnified and multiplied by replication on a national scale spells doom for other GOP hopefuls. Nobody gets a warmer welcome from the greater heart of American productivity than the lady from Alaska who has fought on that same field as both a business owner and a politician. It shows in the crowds she attracts. She is main-stream America’s real political rock-star, and this is why the remainder of the field now works through distortions and disinformation to dissuade her from the race: They know if she gets rolling, she’ll be almost unstoppable. Their strategy remains to stop her from starting.

3. Victory for any Republican in the general election of 2012 is going to require the sharpest possible contrast between Barack Obama and his opponent. As the economy continues to swerve like a drunken driver, curb to curb, and as Obama continues to demonstrate his incompetence for the job, the optics on that side of the scales will be measured against a woman who understands the heart of the trouble in America, and what concrete steps will be required to repair and restore the country. Obama will have a vault of money, most analysts speculating an amount in excess of a billion dollars, but let’s be honest for a moment and admit that if just ten million of Sarah Palin’s supporters would send in just $100 dollars, she would also eclipse that number. If just her 3 million Facebook fans send in just $300, she would approach that number. Times are tough, and many of her supporters find themselves on hard times, but as with me, I see each dollar invested in electing Sarah Palin as hastening the day of the country’s restoration and the recovery our economy, and with it, my own farm and prospects. Many Americans agree, and it is on this point that the matter of money will turn. It’s also worth noting that her so far unannounced campaign is costing nothing, while most of the remainder of the field has been spending for months. One of the sharpest points of contrast between Barack Obama and Sarah Palin will be the clear difference between their respective understandings of the importance of energy in the growth and prosperity of the economy, and indeed the country. As I detailed earlier this week, this difference alone will redound to Governor Palin’s distinct advantage, because people know that life requires energy. Only death and decay attend its absence.

4. The last reason is the most important: Sarah Palin. She’s a true patriot, and a real conservative. It’s not a campaign suit she puts on for the crowds, changing it daily for the sake of a particular audience. This makes for a consistency that has no real rival, and it also means that her supporters can more easily defend her against frivolous, shrill attacks. If a candidate believes the same thing today as yesterday, and tomorrow as today, it’s really not hard to respond to critics with facts about the candidate. This kind of principled consistency is born of knowing what you believe, and why you believe it. She’s a diligent student of issues great and small, and quickly masters new subjects as they arise. This makes for an adaptive, flexible campaign. Mrs. Palin also knows how to capture and hold the attention of people, and it’s an open secret about her success: She actually listens. This connects her to any audience, whether one-by-one, or in larger groups and crowds. Unlike others, she doesn’t see a mass of people as one moving organism, but instead sees people on the personal scale of the individuals who comprise it. The temptation for most politicians is to see the crowd, and become consumed by the size of the forest while overlooking its trees. That’s part of the problem in our government too, and her ability to narrow her attention is as precious as it is rare. This is how a politician must connect with a country: One heart, and one mind at a time.

I contend that all of these are reasons that Sarah Palin will run, win the nomination, and defeat Barack Obama in 2012. When combined with his record of miserable performance, it’s quite possible she’ll do so in epic fashion. It is true that he has the advantages that every sitting President enjoys, but he also suffers from the overwhelming sense that he’s disconnected, and on a tragically wrong course for the country. As bad as that is, what’s worse is that it’s unlikely to get substantially better, and instead looks likely to worsen. With the inflationary policies being adopted by the Federal Reserve, and the debt-piling tendencies of a President and a party addicted to spending, Governor Sarah Palin may well appear on the presidential stage at just the right time to press her advantage and make good on her words: “Mr. President: Game On!



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An American by birth, and a Texan by choice, I am a husband, father, network engineer, student of economics, horseman, Army veteran and writer. Born in September, 1965 in Buffalo, NY.

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