New Poll: Scott Walker, 54%, Tom Barrett, 42%

We Ask America polled the Wisconsin Guberatorial recall race yesterday evening.  The results were startling:

Despite the high emotions, its time again to ask Wisconsin voters whether they intend to retain Republican Scott Walker as their governor, or if they prefer Democrat Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett instead. We asked 1,409 likely voters that question the evening of May 23. Here’s what they said:

Poll type:: Automated Date: 5/23/2012 – Participants: 1,409 Likely Voters – Margin of Error:± 2.61%

Walker Barrett Undecided
ALL VOTERS* 54% 42% 4%
WOMEN 51% 44% 5%
MEN 57% 39% 4%
PUBLIC UNION HOUSEHOLDS 47% 50% 3%
NON-PUB. UNION HOUSEHOLDS 55% 40% 5%

*The head-to-head results were weighted to correct for over-/under-sampling of the gender and age bracket areas. The weighting changed the final results by less than one percentage point.

This poll gives Walker the biggest lead yet and, therefore, it’s tempting to dismiss it. However, a few intangible factors tend to add credibility to the results. The Democrat Establishment has been, at best, lukewarm in supporting Tom Barrett’s campaign with the financial resources necessary to fight what has been described as “Big Labor’s Waterloo”. If it’s really that important to them, why would they largely abandon the fight if there was even a remote chance of victory? My guess is that they can’t afford to throw any more money away on a lost cause and they know it.

Second, although I can’t find a link, I watched David Axelrod on Special Report with Bret Baier this evening making the case that a Barrett loss wouldn’t have any negative  repercussions for Obama in the fall. Whether or not that’s true is immaterial. What I found most instructive is that Axelrod has already begun the process of rationalizing a Barrett loss and distancing Obama from it, even while maintaining he still expects Barrett to win.

Further, on MSNBC’s Morning Joe this morning, Lefties Mike Allen and John Heilemann were quite blunt about how they expected Walker to fare on June 5th.  Via Jim Geraghty:

Along comes Mike Allen of Politico on MSNBC this morning: “Every indication now is that he’s going to win big.”

Joe Scarborough actually cuts him off in surprise at how Allen so casually asserts that the recall isn’t expected to be close.

“The Left, labor, Democrats, which planned to embarrass him, instead have made him a national figure with a very bright future,” Allen continues. “It was money poured down the drain by Democrats and the Left in a presidential election year.”

John Heilemann chimes in, “You notice the White House, the reelection committee in Chicago, they’ve stayed away from Wisconsin. They’ve done these big ad buys, they picked their nine states, Wisconsin’s not on that list. The reason is they wanted to see how this turned out. They have kept their distance from it.”

I feel their pain, heh. That had to be excruciating for them to admit.

Finally, We Ask America, the pollster quoted above, also came out with a startling poll on the eve of the Nebraska Primary.  In that particular poll, which I discussed here, Deb Fischer went from sixteen points down to five points up in one week. At the time there was, understandably, a lot of skepticism about that poll. One small problem for the skeptics, though: Deb Fischer ended up winning the primary … by five points. Obviously this is an apples to oranges comparison, but this combined with the intangibles discussed above make the poll plausible in my mind.

To be sure, the only poll that counts is the one a week from Tuesday.  This is no time to be complacent and turnout is invariably the key in these special elections.  For those of you in Wisconsin, be sure to get out there and vote.  Support Scott walker here.  And don’t forget Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch, who’s also been targeted by Wisconsin’s forces of the status quo.

(h/t TT)

Update: More on what you can do to help in Wisconsin, Thomas has some great information here.



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