Sean Trende | 4 Million Medicaid Enrollees Under Obamacare? Doubtful.

This is really important stuff. The statistics tell us how many people signed up for Medicaid, period, in October and November. The problem is that people are always signing up for Medicaid. Even without the ACA, we would have had people signing up in October and November. Lots of them, in fact: Medicaid is a program that services 60 million citizens, so the number of monthly enrollments that keep a relatively stable population is pretty substantial.

So, how many of these 4 million sign-ups are attributable to Obamacare, and how many of them are just people who entered the system under the earlier rules? The “4 million” number derives from this document, published Dec. 20 by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. It reports on the November enrollment numbers. There’s a similar document for October here.*

Let’s turn to this chart, which tells us the number of applications for financial assistance received by states in October and November (4,209,742, of which 1,736,809 applied in November), and the number of people who were determined eligible for both Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (3,926,068, of which 1,741,011 were determined eligible in November). These numbers are where the “4 million” comes from.

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