Doug Schoen | The potentially mortal threat to Mrs. Clinton’s candidacy

Doug Schoen, Fox News:

And there’s another reason to take Sanders seriously. If Hillary loses the first two states next year—and she could—the landscape will change, just as it did for Lyndon Johnson in 1968, when he effectively “lost” the New Hampshire primary by winning just 49-42 over Senator Eugene McCarthy. That led to LBJ’s withdrawal from the race and the subsequent entry of Senator Bobby Kennedy of New York. RFK had been waiting on the sidelines until then, uncertain about whether he should get in.

Who’s the Bobby Kennedy in this race? Elizabeth Warren.

If Sanders can manage to raise $15 million online in small grassroots donations in just two months, as he has, imagine what Warren—whose stature is far higher—would be able to generate, merely by declaring an interest. So far, Warren has demurred. But in the same way that Obama said he wouldn’t run and Kennedy said he wouldn’t, circumstances and changing poll numbers affect political decisions, and could yet bring the Massachusetts senator into the race.

My polling firm has collected data showing that Warren is competitive in both Iowa, where Hillary sits at close to 50%, and in New Hampshire, where she’s clinging now to a single-digit lead.  Don’t be surprised if, in both states, 2016 looks a lot like the late 1960s.

In short: Hillary Clinton’s candidacy faces a far greater threat—from within her own party—than the media and pundits have been yet willing to recognize.


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