Trump and Carson Pull Away in Latest GOP Polls

September 7th, 2015 • iizthatiiz

New surveys indicate that GOP candidates Donald Trump and Ben Carson are pulling away from the rest of the field.

Marist polls conducted in Iowa and New Hampshire for NBC News show a rather large gap behind the two leading candidates.

Donald Trump - Ben Carson

Trump is the front runner in Iowa at 29 percent, leading Carson by seven points. The rest of the entire Republican field falls a distant third with Jeb Bush at a meager 6 percent, and everyone else bunched up just behind him.

Trump and Carson are also the second choice for Iowa voters, with Carson heavily leading as the second option. Combining the first and second choices of Iowa voters in fact puts Carson slightly ahead of Trump, though well within the margin of error. No one else is even close.

9-5-15 Iowa Republican graph - NBC Marist poll


In New Hampshire, the results are similar, though not quite as dramatic. While Trump is again the clear front runner, there is more of a battle for second place with Ohio Governor John Kasich lightly outpolling Dr. Ben Carson 12 percent to 11 percent. Jeb Bush barely takes fourth place, falling behind with the the also rans.

The combined first and second choice of New Hampshire voters however, still place both Trump and Carson well ahead of the field, though not by as wide of a margin as seen in Iowa. Still, their lead is statistically significant.

9-5-15 New Hampshire Republican graph - NBC Marist poll


Bush Down and Out?


Jeb BushLosing Iowa is a foregone conclusion for Jeb Bush. New Hampshire is a must win state for him. He can ill afford consecutive losses in the first two voting states. Nor can Bush look toward South Carolina, where again both Trump and Carson maintain heavy leads in the latest polling. Even Nevada has shown no sign of being ‘Bush Country’.

With John Kasich providing heavy competition to Bush for the establishment vote in New Hampshire, it is looking exceedingly difficult for Jeb to find any path to victory in the Granite state. Even if Trump were to implode, it is highly unlikely that many Trump voters would flow toward Jeb.

Anti-establishment candidates such as Carson and Cruz would be the main beneficiary of any Trump downfall. Even that small number of Trump voters that could possibly head toward one of the establishment choices would overwhelmingly lean toward Kasich, who hasn’t been feuding with The Donald.

One thing Trump voters have in common is a disdain for Jeb Bush. Some might possibly be persuaded to support Kasich, which would only serve to increase his 3:2 lead over Jeb.

Jeb’s only hope to eke out something close to a victory in New Hampshire is to immediately take on John Kasich and pry that support loose. So far, there has been no sign that Bush is willing to target Kasich. Jeb has been solely focused on trying to take down Trump. A fool’s errand, as the last person Trump voters wish to hear from is Jeb Bush. If anything or anybody is going to knock down Donald Trump, it won’t be an establishment mouthpiece or their media organs. Only Trump himself can put Trump out of the race, through a series of gaffes or miscues, and so far The Donald has only been taking forward steps.


* NBC/Marist margin of error approx 5%

(3831 Posts)

Leave a Reply