Iowa Political Guru Predicts Trump Caucus Win

PoliZette posted on Wednesday that Former Iowa GOP Political Director, Craig Robinson predicts that Donald Trump will come out on top in Iowa, saying:

“I know I’m out there,” he said. “I think Trump’s gonna win Iowa. I think it’s going to be really close, but I think Trump pulls it out.”

The article goes on to say:

Trump got a boost on Tuesday with an endorsement from former GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin. While the former Alaska governor might turn off some independent voters in other states, it is net plus in Iowa, said Robinson.

I agree with Robinson (and the article) that Governor Palin’s a net plus in Iowa.  In fact, after she endorsed Joni Ernst, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spent a lot of money trying to paint Ernst as Iowa’s version of Sarah Palin.  It backfired.  Palin’s Iowa popularity helped catapult Ernst to the top where she eventually won the Senate seat, the first time for any Republican since the 1980s, and the first woman to win the seat ever.

I disagree that Governor Palin turns independents away.  First, back in 2011 she was scoring pretty well with independents nationally when it was believed she was going to run for president in 2012.  Second, New Hampshire is made up of strong independent voters and her endorsement of Kelly Ayotte for Senate was definitely helpful.

In any case, I appreciate Robinson pointing out the value of a Palin endorsement in Iowa.

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