Doug Schoen | Let’s face it, Bloomberg can win

Doug Schoen, Wall Street Journal:

In direct matchups—three-way races against Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Cruz, or Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Rubio—the poll puts Mr. Bloomberg at 28%, and the election almost within the margin of error. And that’s before he has announced a candidacy or run a single ad.

In short, the Bloomberg message would be unique in a year when Republicans have moved sharply to the right, and Democrats sharply to the left. The Luntz survey shows that more than a third of voters, 35%, either have no opinion about Mr. Bloomberg or have never heard of him. That gives him huge potential for growth among voters who are disappointed and dissatisfied with the two major parties.

The past two independents to begin presidential candidacies from the center were not successful. In 1992 Mr. Perot went as high as 37% in the polls, but finished with 19% of the popular vote. In 1980 John Anderson hit the mid-20s, but then stalled and won only 7% on Election Day. But their candidacies were sunk by poor temperament, meager resources or an inability to get on the ballot. Mr. Bloomberg would have none of those problems.


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