J. Robert Smith | A Great Political Realignment is Underway

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A Great Political Realignment is Underway

by J. Robert Smith

March 4, 2016

The Super Tuesday results confirm it. A revolution is underway in the Republican Party. It promises to shakeup politics in the nation come November. It may realign the parties longer term and chart a new course for the nation for a generation.

The overthrow of the GOP establishment is in full swing. It’s an insurgency, with GOP primaries and caucuses setting records for turnout. Part of that turnout is new voters. Democrats, for example, are switching to the GOP in Massachusetts; that’s Trump-driven, and a bad omen for Democrats in November. Democrats’ turnout is depressed.

The Republican Party’s trials are, in no small measure, thanks to energized conservatives. It’s about two candidates, Trump and Cruz, who though battling each other for the nomination, have galvanized conservative voters, thereby isolating the establishment, something outsider candidates failed to accomplish in 2012.

Consider these Super Tuesday numbers. In 11 states, Trump, Cruz, and Carson – the outsiders – combined for 67% of the vote. Rubio and Kasich took only 32%. But there’s a big caveat.

Though Trump and Cruz garnered two-thirds the votes in Super Tuesday contests, they split roughly 28% of the bound delegates needed to win the nomination (that’s 1,237 for a majority). In all races, Trump has collected 26% of the delegates toward being nominated. Cruz has totaled 18%. (Rubio is limping along with a meager 9% of the delegates needed.)

There’s a way to go before either Trump or Cruz can sew up the nomination. The March 15th contests, with winner-take-all trials in Florida and Ohio, could decide things. Florida currently favors Trump, so the 15th could be the day Trump triumphs. But…  (Read More)

 

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