Poll: Trump Takes Substantial Lead in Oregon Primary

April 29th, 2016 • iizthatiiz


New Oregon Poll Released!




Until today, there has been no recent polling for the upcoming Oregon presidential primary scheduled for May 17th. The last survey was conducted way back in July of 2015, nine months ago.

That all changed with a new poll released today by The Hoffman Research Group. The survey was taken April 26th-27th among 555 likely Oregon Republican primary voters.

Oregon voters submit their ballots exclusively by mail, and the primary is closed with only registered Republicans able to participate.

Twenty-Eight delegates will be up grabs. Ten delegates will represent the state at large, and three delegates will represent each of Oregon’s five congressional districts. All state and district delegates will be awarded proportionally based upon the statewide vote totals received by each candidate.  Three additional delegates represented by Oregon Republican party leaders will be bound to the overall winner of the state primary.

The survey was nothing but good news for Trump in all categories.

Of the three candidates, Oregon voters held the highest opinion of Donald Trump, with both Cruz and Kasich lagging behind in favorability.

04-29-16 Oregon Republican poll - favorability


* If the Republican Primary Election for President of the United States were held today, would you vote for John Kasich, Ted Cruz, or Donald Trump?

04-29-16 Oregon Republican poll - candidate


Trump was by far the candidate of choice for Oregon Republican voters. He registered a whopping forty-three percent, the equivalent of both Cruz and Kasich combined!

If the thirteen percent of voters who are still undecided were forced to choose today, Trump holds a decided advantage over both Cruz and Kasich, with 25% saying that they would vote for Trump, 18% for Kasich, and only 15% for Cruz. The remainder were unable to make a decision.

Perhaps the best news in the survey for Trump was the solidity of his support. Three quarters of Trump voters have firmly made their choice, while half of both Cruz and Kasich voters could still change their mind, leaving open a substantial possibility that the margin of victory for Trump could increase.

04-29-16 Oregon Republican poll - solidity of support

If the Oregon primary were held today, Donald Trump would be awarded 15 of Oregon’s 28 delegates. Cruz would be alloted eight, and Kasich only five. With momentum now clearly on The Donald’s side after sweeping the last six primaries, this new poll clarifying Trump’s standing among Oregon voters will only add to the growing perception that Donald Trump is the presumptive nominee for the Republican party.


The survey is based on landline and cellphone interviews with 555 randomly chosen likely Oregon Republican Primary voters. Attention was given to Oregon’s rural and urban divide within seven geographic regions. The survey also maintained appropriate balances with regard to age, gender and vote propensity.

The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.16 at a 95% confidence level. (Hoffman Research)



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