Geoff Blades | Why Nate Silver Is Still Wrong

via The Daily Caller:


Nate Silver - question marks (200x200)Why Nate Silver Is Still Wrong

Geoff Blades | May 24, 2016

Celebrated commentator and highly regarded prognosticator, Nate Silver, still doesn’t get it.

In September 2015, in an article titled, “Six Stages of Doom,” Silver suggested that Trump’s campaign “is nothing all that unusual” and estimated Donald’s chances of becoming the GOP nominee at 5 percent.

In November 2015, in a letter to the media urging them to “Stop freaking out about Donald Trump,” he suggested that pundits’ giving Trump a 20 percent chance of winning the primary was “substantially too high.”

Yet this past weekend, Silver admitted — with 100 percent certainty — that Trump will be the Republican nominee. And that he has a 25 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election.

After “gazing deep into his navel,” Mr. Silver claims to have discovered the answers in an article last week titled “Why Republican voters decided on Trump.” Citing his own tweet, he summarizes the three most important reasons that “things have gone wrong”:

  1. Voters are more tribal than I thought.
  2. GOP is weaker than I thought.
  3. Media is worse than I thought.

Yet, while delving into a thoughtful and convincing-sounding narrative, like many observers, he still has it wrong.

Completely wrong.

Looking to understand the Trump phenomenon by looking at where the spotlight still shines completely misses how this man came to be here. In looking for answers in the media, the GOP, and the electorate, Mr. Silver is still missing the source of Trump’s victory.

Trump mastered the game of winning.

(Read More)


Read the full commentary at The Daily Caller



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