May 3rd, 2016 • iizthatiiz
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich held a live interactive video chat on Facebook yesterday, answering questions from viewers (full video below)
Newt Gingrich prognosticated on the state of both the Republican and Democrat contests for the presidential nomination. Assessing Bernie Sanders, Gingrich said that Sanders had to pull out a victory over Hillary Clinton in the Indiana primary to remain competitive through California’s June election.
Turning to the Republican race, Gingrich jabbed at media efforts to prolong the GOP contest as being in their own selfish self-interest. “When Trump won really big in New York, the news media was sort of terrified. ‘What if this race is over? What do we cover? What are we going to talk about all spring?‘, Gingrich asked rhetorically. In the immediate wake of Trump’s massive New York victory, TV talking heads quickly switched gears and began pointing toward Pennsylvania as a “really big deal”. When Trump won decisively in Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware, and Maryland on April 26th, sweeping every county in all five states. “Wait’ll we get to Indiana”, the media mouthpieces sounded off, shifting the landscape once again.
As we now know, Trump scored what appears to be a 20 point margin of victory in Indiana tonight, potentially sweeping all 57 of the states delegates. Will the media once again attempt to pull the rug out from under Trump, setting new bars for him to hurdle before they resign themselves to Trump’s inevitable nomination.
Gingrich said that Indiana was Cruz’s “last dance”, and that he can make “no practical case for carrying on the campaign.” Newt predicted that Trump could have up to 1,500 delegates before July’s Republican convention, well beyond the 1,237 required to secure the nomination. Gingrich painted a similar bleak scenario for John Kasich’s hopes of a contested convention saying that, “the entire rationale for that campaign” has broken down as well.
Looking forward to the general election, Gingrich delineated Clinton attributes that differentiate her from Donald Trump. “Hillary Clinton represents all of the elements of Washington D.C. that people are in rebellion against … Everybody in America who wants to take back Washington from the lobbyists, the lawyers, the bureaucrats .. they have a vested, real deep interest in defeating Hillary Clinton.”
Gingrich predicted that many Democrats will cross over to vote for Trump, starting with the large swathe of Sanders supporters. “I think a lot of the millennials who were voting for Bernie Sanders are not going to vote for Hillary Clinton. I think they think she’s not honest. I think they’re bothered by her scandals with the Clinton Foundation, her scandals with the email server”, citing an long litany of problems Hillary has with those who have rallied around Bernie. “There’ll be a lot of Democrats out there looking for someone to go to”, he added.
Alluding to so-called Reagan Democrats, Gingrich said “I think that Trump has somehow communicated with blue collar workers across America and we certainly see this in terms of registration numbers.” Discussing a massive shift in the electorate, he pointed out that, “We’ve had a 60% increase in Republican turnout this year compared to four years ago. There’s been about a 25% Democratic decrease over 2008, the last time they had a contested nomination.” “Secretary Clinton is not exactly arousing people’s excitement”, he said underscoring the point.
“There is a big path for Hillary to lose … lots of ways for Hillary to lose”
I think it’s important this year because of the unique moment in time and because of the uniqueness of Donald Trump to erase all of our thinking about what kind of states could be in play. I think if Trump runs as aggressive a campaign in the general election as he has run in the primaries all 50 states could be in play.
He could have “the Democrats on defense virtually everywhere in the country. Particularly if Trump decides to go big, and to talk about big issues and big choices.”
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