U.S. Military Must Overcome ‘Hubris’ and Prepare for Surprises


A taxonomy of potential shocks. Scenarios range from the classic strategic surprise attack to technological surprise, doctrinal surprise, and diplomatic/political surprises.


WASHINGTON: Even as a sniper shoots President John Doe at an open-air rally, a dozen commandos in civilian clothes are scaling the fence at Fort Myer just south of the Potomac. In minutes, they’ve stormed Officers’ Row and killed or wounded two-thirds of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, including the Chairman, in their homes. The team…


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